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SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

55-48  |  Road

0
FINAL
Fri, Jul 25 • 7:15 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

53-51  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Wandy Peralta
STARTING PITCHER

Wandy Peralta

#58 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jordan Walker
STARTING PITCHER

Jordan Walker

#18 | Right Field
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Wandy Peralta None-None 3.42 -- 0.2 --
Jordan Walker None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
3.42 ERA --
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
52%
📊
CARDINALS
48%
PADRES --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (St. Louis)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

49.1%

Cardinals Cover

50.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

SD By 1-2 runs

18.3%

SD By 3-4 runs

13.3%

STL By 1-2 runs

18.6%

STL By 3-4 runs

13.8%

AI Model Projected Score
3.55
SAN DIEGO
3.64
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
3
SAN DIEGO
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinals Win
48% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
C
Sim Cardinals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.2
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 17, 2026 SD @ STL 6 - 1
Jun 16, 2026 SD @ STL 2 - 3
Jun 15, 2026 SD @ STL 0 - 3
May 10, 2026 STL @ SD 2 - 3
May 9, 2026 STL @ SD 2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
St. Louis STL
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.925 ▲
OPS
.691
4
Home Runs
▲ 167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +4075.0% more
St. Louis: 167.0 vs San Diego: 4.0
Strikeouts (L5) +50.2% more
St. Louis: 9.8 vs San Diego: 6.5
Home Runs (L5) +35.0% more
St. Louis: 1.2 vs San Diego: 0.9
Errors (L5) +23.0% more
St. Louis: 0.7 vs San Diego: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 3.6 0
STL Score 3.6 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.5 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.8 / 9.3 5.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.8 / 6.5 4.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 15.9 / 14.8 7.0 / 13.0
Walks 2.1 / 3.2 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
91%MONEY9%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
77%MONEY23%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
STL
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
SD
STL
SD
ML
53% 85-74
51% 85-83
52% 84-77
51% 85-82
ATS
56% 89-70
54% 91-77
53% 85-76
55% 92-75
TTL
46% 68-81-10
51% 82-80-6
50% 76-75-10
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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