ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
44-57 | Road
3
TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
53-50 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Michael Harris II
#23 | Center Field@
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob Latz
#67 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Harris II | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Jacob Latz | None-None | 3.04 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
3.04
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
42%
RANGERS
58%
BRAVES
--
RANGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
68%
Under 0
32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Texas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
ATL By 1-2 runs
17.7%
ATL By 3-4 runs
12.4%
TEX By 1-2 runs
19.0%
TEX By 3-4 runs
14.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
5.04
ATLANTA
Texas
5.44
TEXAS
Simulated Score
Atlanta
3
ATLANTA
Texas
5
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rangers
Win
58% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rangers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rangers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
D
Sim
Rangers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.5
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 19, 2026
TEX @ ATL
5 - 8
Jul 18, 2026
TEX @ ATL
7 - 6
Jul 17, 2026
TEX @ ATL
1 - 15
Jul 27, 2025
ATL @ TEX
1 - 8
Jul 26, 2025
ATL @ TEX
5 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Texas
TEX
1
Games Played
▲
162
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.242
.324
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.757
▲
OPS
.713
1
Home Runs
▲
183
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+18200.0% more
Texas: 183.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Home Runs (L5)
+100.0% more
Texas: 1.5
vs
Atlanta: 0.5
Strikeouts (L5)
+25.8% more
Texas: 10.0
vs
Atlanta: 7.9
Errors (L5)
+12.0% more
Texas: 0.2
vs
Atlanta: 0.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
5.0
3
TEX Score
5.4
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.1
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.3 / 7.9
8.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 0.5
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.0 / 7.9
11.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
12.6 / 11.4
13.0 / 10.0
Walks
2.2 / 4.2
7.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
ATL
TEX
ATL
ML
53%
86-76
46%
77-90
57%
91-70
54%
90-78
ATS
57%
92-70
57%
96-71
61%
98-63
52%
87-81
TTL
53%
78-70-14
53%
83-73-11
55%
81-66-14
49%
76-80-11
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