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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

41-61  |  Road

0
FINAL
Fri, Jul 25 • 8:10 PM ET
Target Field
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

49-53  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Jacob Young
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Young

#30 | Center Field
@
Zebby Matthews
STARTING PITCHER

Zebby Matthews

#52 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jacob Young None-None -- -- -- --
Zebby Matthews None-None 4.97 -- 6.0 7
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 4.97
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 6.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 7
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
42%
📊
TWINS
58%
NATIONALS --
TWINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Minnesota)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 TwinsMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

49.2%

Twins Cover

50.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIN -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

WSH By 1-2 runs

18.3%

WSH By 3-4 runs

13.3%

MIN By 1-2 runs

18.6%

MIN By 3-4 runs

13.8%

AI Model Projected Score
4.23
WASHINGTON
4.31
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
6
WASHINGTON
4
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Twins Win
58% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Twins (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
D
Sim Nationals (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.5
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 7, 2026 MIN @ WSH 5 - 7
May 6, 2026 MIN @ WSH 2 - 15
May 5, 2026 MIN @ WSH 11 - 3
Jul 27, 2025 WSH @ MIN 7 - 2
Jul 26, 2025 WSH @ MIN 9 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Minnesota MIN
162
Games Played
162
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.321 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
.744 ▲
OPS
.720
210 ▲
Home Runs
187
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +48.3% more
Minnesota: 8.6 vs Washington: 5.8
Home Runs (L5) +42.0% more
Minnesota: 1.1 vs Washington: 0.7
Total Bases (L5) +23.0% more
Minnesota: 13.9 vs Washington: 11.3
Hits (L5) +14.5% more
Minnesota: 8.1 vs Washington: 7.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 4.2 0
MIN Score 4.3 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.1 / 7.1 3.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 5.8 10.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 13.9 / 11.3 4.0 / 5.0
Walks 3.5 / 3.6 1.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
44%MONEY56%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
WSH
MIN
WSH
ML
52% 84-78
57% 92-69
50% 80-81
54% 87-74
ATS
59% 95-67
58% 93-68
59% 95-66
57% 91-70
TTL
51% 78-75-9
50% 77-78-6
53% 80-72-9
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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