ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
43-62 | Road
15
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
60-43 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Elvis Alvarado
#37 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Yainer Diaz
#21 | Catcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Alvarado | None-None | 3.71 | -- | 2.0 | 3 |
| Yainer Diaz | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.71
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
2.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
3
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
33%
ASTROS
67%
ATHLETICS
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
56%
Under 0
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
ATH By 1-2 runs
17.3%
ATH By 3-4 runs
11.9%
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.2%
HOU By 3-4 runs
15.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Athletics
4.09
ATHLETICS
Houston
4.66
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Athletics
3
ATHLETICS
Houston
6
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Astros
Loss
67% Win Prob
C
Sim
Astros
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Astros (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.6
C
Sim
Astros (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
HOU @ ATH
9 - 0
Sep 26, 2026
HOU @ ATH
13 - 2
Sep 25, 2026
HOU @ ATH
5 - 6
Sep 24, 2026
HOU @ ATH
7 - 5
Aug 23, 2026
ATH @ HOU
7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics
ATH
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.31
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.719
▲
OPS
.582
194
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+70.9% more
Houston: 2.9
vs
Athletics: 1.7
Errors (L5)
+44.0% more
Houston: 0.5
vs
Athletics: 0.1
Home Runs (Season)
+97.9% more
Athletics: 194.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Home Runs (L5)
+34.0% more
Athletics: 0.9
vs
Houston: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATH Score
4.1
15
HOU Score
4.7
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.8 / 8.9
6.0 / 16.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 0.9
1.0 / 6.0
Strikeouts
6.8 / 8.4
12.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
12.2 / 14.3
11.0 / 37.0
Walks
2.9 / 1.7
6.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
ATH
HOU
ATH
ML
50%
81-82
59%
95-67
47%
77-87
54%
87-74
ATS
56%
91-72
52%
84-78
55%
90-74
50%
81-80
TTL
45%
70-84-9
54%
84-73-5
45%
69-86-9
42%
66-90-5
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