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SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

55-47  |  Road

7
FINAL
Thu, Jul 24 • 7:45 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

52-51  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
Kyle Hart
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Hart

#68 | Relief Pitcher
@
Riley O'Brien
STARTING PITCHER

Riley O'Brien

#61 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kyle Hart None-None 5.29 -- 1.0 --
Riley O'Brien None-None 1.82 -- 0.1 1
None-None W-L None-None
5.29 ERA Ldr 1.82
-- WHIP --
1.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.1
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
53%
📊
CARDINALS
47%
PADRES --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (San Diego)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

52.9%

Cardinals Cover

47.1%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

SD By 1-2 runs

18.9%

SD By 3-4 runs

14.4%

STL By 1-2 runs

17.9%

STL By 3-4 runs

12.7%

AI Model Projected Score
3.77
SAN DIEGO
3.48
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
4
SAN DIEGO
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Padres Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Padres (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
A
Sim Cardinals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 17, 2026 SD @ STL 6 - 1
Jun 16, 2026 SD @ STL 2 - 3
Jun 15, 2026 SD @ STL 0 - 3
May 10, 2026 STL @ SD 2 - 3
May 9, 2026 STL @ SD 2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
St. Louis STL
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.925 ▲
OPS
.691
4
Home Runs
▲ 167
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +26.0% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs St. Louis: 4.4
OPS (Season) +23.4%
San Diego: 92.5% vs St. Louis: 69.1%
Slugging Pct (Season) +18.5%
San Diego: 56.3% vs St. Louis: 37.8%
Errors (L5) +15.0% more
San Diego: 0.8 vs St. Louis: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 3.8 7
STL Score 3.5 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.8 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.6 / 7.5 12.0 / 13.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 0.3 3.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.7 / 6.8 12.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 12.4 / 11.2 23.0 / 22.0
Walks 2.6 / 2.4 1.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
STL
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
SD
STL
SD
ML
53% 85-74
51% 85-83
52% 84-77
51% 85-82
ATS
56% 89-70
54% 91-77
53% 85-76
55% 92-75
TTL
46% 68-81-10
51% 82-80-6
50% 76-75-10
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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