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SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

54-48  |  Road

4
FINAL
Thu, Jul 24 • 9:38 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

49-53  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Andres Munoz
STARTING PITCHER

Andres Munoz

#75 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jose Fermin
STARTING PITCHER

Jose Fermin

#65 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Andres Munoz None-None 1.38 -- 1.0 1
Jose Fermin None-None 5.21 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
1.38 Ldr ERA 5.21
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
55%
📊
ANGELS
45%
MARINERS --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 70%
Under 0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Seattle)
MarinersSEA (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mariners Cover

59.2%

Angels Cover

40.8%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SEA -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)

SEA By 1-2 runs

19.5%

SEA By 3-4 runs

16.1%

LAA By 1-2 runs

16.5%

LAA By 3-4 runs

10.8%

AI Model Projected Score
5.34
SEATTLE
4.41
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
3
SEATTLE
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mariners Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Angels Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mariners (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
B
Sim Angels (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.8
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 LAA @ SEA 3 - 7
Sep 26, 2026 LAA @ SEA 4 - 8
Sep 25, 2026 LAA @ SEA 7 - 5
Sep 24, 2026 LAA @ SEA 6 - 4
Sep 16, 2026 SEA @ LAA 7 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle SEA
vs
Los Angeles LAA
162
Games Played
162
4.10 ▲
Runs / Game
4.04
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .234
.314 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.379 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.693 ▲
OPS
.679
182 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +32.9% more
Seattle: 10.7 vs Los Angeles: 7.2
Home Runs (Season) +15.4% more
Seattle: 182.0 vs Los Angeles: 154.0
Runs per Game (Season) +1.5% more
Seattle: 4.1 vs Los Angeles: 4.0
OPS (Season) +1.4%
Seattle: 69.3% vs Los Angeles: 67.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SEA Score 5.3 4
LAA Score 4.4 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.8 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.8 / 6.7 7.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 0.6 0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 7.2 / 10.7 11.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 14.3 / 10.0 8.0 / 18.0
Walks 3.5 / 2.6 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
48%MONEY52%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA Advantage
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
SEA
LAA
SEA
ML
59% 96-66
50% 81-81
55% 89-73
52% 85-77
ATS
60% 97-65
60% 98-64
51% 82-80
59% 95-67
TTL
53% 83-74-5
56% 85-67-10
52% 82-75-5
53% 81-71-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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