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SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

53-49  |  Road

9
FINAL
Wed, Jul 23 • 12:15 PM ET
Truist Park
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

44-56  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Willy Adames
STARTING PITCHER

Willy Adames

#2 | Shortstop
@
Raisel Iglesias
STARTING PITCHER

Raisel Iglesias

#26 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Willy Adames None-None -- -- -- --
Raisel Iglesias None-None 4.99 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 4.99
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
58%
📊
BRAVES
42%
GIANTS --
BRAVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 25%
Under 0 75%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (San Francisco)
GiantsSF (-3.5) 0 BravesATL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

60.9%

Braves Cover

39.1%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SF -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

SF By 1-2 runs

19.6%

SF By 3-4 runs

16.6%

ATL By 1-2 runs

16.0%

ATL By 3-4 runs

10.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4.45
SAN FRANCISCO
3.34
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
4
SAN FRANCISCO
5
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Giants Win
58% Win Prob
D
Sim Braves Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Giants (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.1
D
Sim Braves (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.8
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 31, 2026 SF @ ATL 7 - 3
Jun 28, 2026 ATL @ SF 2 - 3
Jun 27, 2026 ATL @ SF 0 - 5
Jun 26, 2026 ATL @ SF 3 - 1
Jun 17, 2026 SF @ ATL 7 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
Atlanta ATL
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.13
Runs / Game
▲ 5.00
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .324
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .433
.706
OPS
▲ .757
178 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +99.4% more
San Francisco: 178.0 vs Atlanta: 1.0
Home Runs (L5) +41.8% more
San Francisco: 1.3 vs Atlanta: 0.8
Strikeouts (L5) +41.4% more
San Francisco: 10.0 vs Atlanta: 5.9
Errors (L5) +37.0% more
San Francisco: 0.6 vs Atlanta: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 4.5 9
ATL Score 3.3 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.3 / 9.7 7.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.3 0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 5.9 / 10.0 12.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 12.6 / 16.7 9.0 / 21.0
Walks 4.4 / 4.1 4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
14%MONEY86%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
ATL Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
SF
ATL
SF
ML
46% 77-90
49% 79-81
54% 90-78
53% 85-75
ATS
57% 96-71
62% 100-60
52% 87-81
52% 83-77
TTL
53% 83-73-11
55% 82-68-10
49% 76-80-11
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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