DETROIT
TIGERSDET
60-42 | Road
1
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
41-61 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Troy Melton
#52 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Carmen Mlodzinski
#50 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Melton | None-None | 10.80 | -- | 5.0 | 7 |
| Carmen Mlodzinski | None-None | 4.62 | -- | 2.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
10.80
ERA
Ldr 4.62
--
WHIP
--
5.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
2.0
7 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
68%
PIRATES
32%
TIGERS
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
53%
Under 0
47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PIT -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
DET By 1-2 runs
16.9%
DET By 3-4 runs
11.3%
PIT By 1-2 runs
19.4%
PIT By 3-4 runs
15.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
3.09
DETROIT
Pittsburgh
3.85
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Detroit
3
DETROIT
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pirates
Win
32% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pirates
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pirates (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.8
B
Sim
Pirates (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
PIT @ DET
4 - 2
Sep 26, 2026
PIT @ DET
3 - 4
Sep 25, 2026
PIT @ DET
7 - 8
Aug 19, 2026
DET @ PIT
3 - 4
Aug 18, 2026
DET @ PIT
1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit
DET
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.46
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.320
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.720
OPS
▲
.734
181
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+34.2% more
Pittsburgh: 9.9
vs
Detroit: 7.4
Total Bases (L5)
+18.8% more
Pittsburgh: 13.9
vs
Detroit: 11.7
Runs per Game (Season)
+6.1% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7
vs
Detroit: 4.5
Home Runs (Season)
+2.8% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0
vs
Detroit: 181.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
3.1
1
PIT Score
3.9
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 1.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.9 / 7.4
8.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.1 / 0.9
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.5 / 10.9
11.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
13.9 / 11.7
15.0 / 6.0
Walks
3.2 / 3.1
0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
DET
PIT
DET
ML
52%
82-77
54%
86-73
52%
85-78
54%
87-73
ATS
54%
86-73
64%
101-58
50%
81-82
57%
91-69
TTL
47%
72-81-6
46%
69-81-9
50%
79-78-6
46%
69-81-10
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