Home / MLB Projections MLB / Angels @ Mets LAA @ NYM

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

49-52  |  Road

3
FINAL
Wed, Jul 23 • 1:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

58-44  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Sam Bachman
STARTING PITCHER

Sam Bachman

#40 | Relief Pitcher
@
Sean Manaea
STARTING PITCHER

Sean Manaea

#59 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Sam Bachman None-None 4.85 -- 1.0 --
Sean Manaea None-None 2.19 -- 5.0 5
None-None W-L None-None
4.85 ERA Ldr 2.19
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
42%
📊
METS
58%
ANGELS --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (New York)
AngelsLAA (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Angels Cover

42.9%

Mets Cover

57.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

LAA By 1-2 runs

17.0%

LAA By 3-4 runs

11.4%

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.4%

NYM By 3-4 runs

15.6%

AI Model Projected Score
4.27
LOS ANGELES
4.99
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
4
LOS ANGELES
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mets Win
58% Win Prob
D
Sim Mets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mets (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.7
C
Sim Mets (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.3
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 3, 2026 NYM @ LAA 5 - 1
May 2, 2026 NYM @ LAA 3 - 4
May 1, 2026 NYM @ LAA 4 - 3
Jul 23, 2025 LAA @ NYM 3 - 6
Jul 22, 2025 LAA @ NYM 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAA
vs
New York NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.04
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .239
.310
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.369
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .395
.679
OPS
▲ .705
154
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +35.8% more
New York: 9.3 vs Los Angeles: 6.8
Home Runs (Season) +32.5% more
New York: 204.0 vs Los Angeles: 154.0
Runs per Game (Season) +6.7% more
New York: 4.3 vs Los Angeles: 4.0
Slugging Pct (Season) +2.6%
New York: 39.5% vs Los Angeles: 36.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAA Score 4.3 3
NYM Score 5.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 1.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.2 / 10.8 10.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.3 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.3 / 6.8 9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 10.1 / 17.0 18.0 / 9.0
Walks 2.9 / 4.7 5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
NYM Advantage
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
LAA
NYM
LAA
ML
50% 79-80
59% 96-66
48% 76-83
55% 89-73
ATS
58% 93-66
60% 97-65
49% 78-81
51% 82-80
TTL
55% 80-66-13
53% 83-74-5
51% 74-72-13
52% 82-75-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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