HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
59-42 | Road
4
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
50-52 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Josh Hader
#71 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kevin Ginkel
#37 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hader | None-None | 2.31 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Kevin Ginkel | None-None | 7.99 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.31 Ldr
ERA
7.99
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
59%
DIAMONDBACKS
41%
ASTROS
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.7%
HOU By 3-4 runs
16.6%
ARI By 1-2 runs
16.0%
ARI By 3-4 runs
10.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
6.05
HOUSTON
Arizona
4.92
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
Houston
3
HOUSTON
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Astros
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Sim
Diamondbacks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Astros (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.1
D
Sim
Diamondbacks (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
ARI @ HOU
3 - 2
Sep 5, 2026
ARI @ HOU
4 - 3
Sep 4, 2026
ARI @ HOU
1 - 3
Jul 23, 2025
HOU @ ARI
4 - 3
Jul 22, 2025
HOU @ ARI
3 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Arizona
ARI
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.318
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.582
OPS
▲
.720
4
Home Runs
▲
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+32.3% more
Houston: 1.3
vs
Arizona: 0.9
Home Runs (Season)
+4050.0% more
Arizona: 166.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+52.0% more
Arizona: 4.6
vs
Houston: 3.0
Errors (L5)
+44.0% more
Arizona: 0.8
vs
Houston: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
6.1
4
ARI Score
4.9
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.2 / 9.9
9.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.3
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.6 / 8.0
7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
14.8 / 15.1
15.0 / 14.0
Walks
3.2 / 3.4
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
HOU
ARI
HOU
ML
54%
87-74
50%
81-82
54%
86-74
47%
77-87
ATS
57%
91-70
56%
91-72
56%
89-71
55%
90-74
TTL
52%
80-73-8
45%
70-84-9
49%
73-77-9
45%
69-86-9
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