Home / MLB Projections MLB / Twins @ Dodgers MIN @ LAD

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

49-52  |  Road

3
FINAL
Wed, Jul 23 • 4:10 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

59-43  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Brooks Lee
STARTING PITCHER

Brooks Lee

#22 | Third Base
@
Alex Vesia
STARTING PITCHER

Alex Vesia

#51 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brooks Lee None-None -- -- -- --
Alex Vesia None-None 2.59 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 2.59
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
41%
📊
DODGERS
59%
TWINS --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 58%
Under 0 42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Minnesota)
TwinsMIN (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Twins Cover

51.0%

Dodgers Cover

49.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIN -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

MIN By 1-2 runs

18.6%

MIN By 3-4 runs

13.9%

LAD By 1-2 runs

18.3%

LAD By 3-4 runs

13.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3.91
MINNESOTA
3.81
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
3
MINNESOTA
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Twins Loss
41% Win Prob
D
Sim Dodgers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Twins (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.1
B
Sim Dodgers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.7
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 24, 2026 LAD @ MIN 4 - 3
Jun 23, 2026 LAD @ MIN 12 - 3
Jun 22, 2026 LAD @ MIN 2 - 1
Jul 23, 2025 MIN @ LAD 3 - 4
Jul 22, 2025 MIN @ LAD 10 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota MIN
vs
Los Angeles LAD
162
Games Played
162
4.56
Runs / Game
▲ 4.94
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.403
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .424
.720
OPS
▲ .762
187
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +25.3% more
Minnesota: 9.7 vs Los Angeles: 7.2
Home Runs (L5) +97.4% more
Los Angeles: 2.3 vs Minnesota: 1.1
Errors (L5) +88.0% more
Los Angeles: 1.2 vs Minnesota: 0.4
Walks (L5) +83.6% more
Los Angeles: 5.2 vs Minnesota: 2.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 3.9 3
LAD Score 3.8 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.2 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.2 / 9.7 9.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 2.3 / 1.1 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.3 / 8.9 15.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 15.3 / 16.4 12.0 / 9.0
Walks 5.2 / 2.8 4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
4%MONEY96%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
MIN
LAD
MIN
ML
56% 92-73
52% 84-78
48% 79-87
50% 80-81
ATS
59% 98-67
59% 95-67
43% 72-94
59% 95-66
TTL
48% 77-82-6
51% 78-75-9
44% 70-90-6
53% 80-72-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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