NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
56-45 | Road
4
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
59-42 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Max Fried
#54 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Nathan Lukes
#38 | Right Field| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Fried | None-None | 2.62 | -- | 5.1 | 3 |
| Nathan Lukes | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.62
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
5.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
3
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
47%
BLUE JAYS
53%
YANKEES
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.3
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.3 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -2.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
NYY By 1-2 runs
12.7%
NYY By 3-4 runs
7.1%
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.4%
TOR By 3-4 runs
18.9%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
4.66
NEW YORK
Toronto
6.95
TORONTO
Simulated Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
Toronto
6
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays
Win
53% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Jays
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.3
B
Sim
Blue Jays (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 11.6
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
TOR @ NYY
3 - 8
Aug 22, 2026
TOR @ NYY
4 - 3
Aug 21, 2026
TOR @ NYY
1 - 3
Aug 16, 2026
NYY @ TOR
4 - 3
Aug 15, 2026
NYY @ TOR
1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYY
vs
Toronto
TOR
1
Games Played
▲
162
9.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.375
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.447
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.594
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
1.041
▲
OPS
.692
2
Home Runs
▲
152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+7500.0% more
Toronto: 152.0
vs
New York: 2.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+38.9% more
Toronto: 8.8
vs
New York: 6.3
Hits (L5)
+33.6% more
Toronto: 9.3
vs
New York: 7.0
Home Runs (L5)
+64.5% more
New York: 2.0
vs
Toronto: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYY Score
4.7
4
TOR Score
7.0
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.8
1.0 / 4.0
Hits
9.3 / 7.0
10.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 2.0
1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
8.8 / 6.3
8.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
14.1 / 14.6
18.0 / 14.0
Walks
2.1 / 4.1
0.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
NYY
TOR
NYY
ML
46%
74-87
47%
76-85
50%
80-80
52%
85-77
ATS
56%
90-71
59%
95-66
49%
79-81
53%
86-76
TTL
51%
80-76-5
53%
81-73-7
45%
70-85-5
53%
82-72-7
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