CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
36-66 | Road
11
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
53-49 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Grant Taylor
#31 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Ian Seymour
#61 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Taylor | None-None | 3.93 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Ian Seymour | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.2 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.93
ERA
Ldr 0.00
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.2
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
34%
RAYS
66%
WHITE SOX
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHW -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)
CHW By 1-2 runs
18.7%
CHW By 3-4 runs
14.1%
TB By 1-2 runs
18.1%
TB By 3-4 runs
13.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
5.08
CHICAGO
Tampa Bay
4.88
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
White Sox
Win
34% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rays
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
White Sox (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
B
Sim
Rays (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
CHW @ TB
9 - 1
Aug 1, 2026
CHW @ TB
0 - 1
Jul 31, 2026
CHW @ TB
6 - 1
Apr 16, 2026
TB @ CHW
5 - 3
Apr 15, 2026
TB @ CHW
8 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHW
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
1
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.54
.324
▲
Avg (AVG)
.258
.415
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.412
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.826
▲
OPS
.728
1
Home Runs
▲
169
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+95.1% more
Chicago: 1.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.1
Walks (L5)
+62.0% more
Chicago: 4.4
vs
Tampa Bay: 1.7
Home Runs (L5)
+48.9% more
Chicago: 1.3
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.7
Total Bases (L5)
+43.2% more
Chicago: 15.7
vs
Tampa Bay: 8.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHW Score
5.1
11
TB Score
4.9
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 1.0
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.1 / 8.8
15.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.3
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.8 / 8.8
6.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
8.9 / 15.7
24.0 / 18.0
Walks
1.7 / 4.4
5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TB
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
CHW
TB
CHW
ML
58%
95-68
49%
81-86
58%
95-68
56%
94-73
ATS
60%
97-66
59%
99-68
55%
90-73
56%
93-74
TTL
47%
73-81-9
58%
96-69-2
51%
78-75-10
51%
84-81-2
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