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DETROIT

TIGERSDET

60-41  |  Road

5
FINAL
Tue, Jul 22 • 6:40 PM ET
PNC Park
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

40-61  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Tyler Holton
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Holton

#87 | Relief Pitcher
@
Mitch Keller
STARTING PITCHER

Mitch Keller

#23 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tyler Holton None-None 3.58 -- 0.1 --
Mitch Keller None-None 3.53 -- 6.0 5
None-None W-L None-None
3.58 ERA Ldr 3.53
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
69%
📊
PIRATES
31%
TIGERS --
PIRATES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Detroit)
TigersDET (-3.5) 0 PiratesPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

53.1%

Pirates Cover

46.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around DET -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

DET By 1-2 runs

18.9%

DET By 3-4 runs

14.5%

PIT By 1-2 runs

17.9%

PIT By 3-4 runs

12.7%

AI Model Projected Score
3.29
DETROIT
2.98
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
3
DETROIT
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Sim Pirates Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
C
Sim Pirates (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 PIT @ DET 4 - 2
Sep 26, 2026 PIT @ DET 3 - 4
Sep 25, 2026 PIT @ DET 7 - 8
Aug 19, 2026 DET @ PIT 3 - 4
Aug 18, 2026 DET @ PIT 1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
Pittsburgh PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.46
Runs / Game
▲ 4.73
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲ .253
.320
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .330
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .404
.720
OPS
▲ .734
181
Home Runs
▲ 186
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +24.0% more
Detroit: 0.4 vs Pittsburgh: 0.2
Strikeouts (L5) +22.5% more
Detroit: 11.3 vs Pittsburgh: 8.8
Hits (L5) +29.4% more
Pittsburgh: 7.8 vs Detroit: 6.1
Total Bases (L5) +22.3% more
Pittsburgh: 9.9 vs Detroit: 8.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 3.3 5
PIT Score 3.0 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.3 0.0 / 3.0
Hits 7.8 / 6.1 14.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.2 / 0.4 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.8 / 11.3 11.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 9.9 / 8.1 22.0 / 19.0
Walks 2.7 / 2.7 4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
88%MONEY12%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
88%MONEY12%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
25%MONEY75%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
DET
PIT
DET
ML
52% 82-77
54% 86-73
52% 85-78
54% 87-73
ATS
54% 86-73
64% 101-58
50% 81-82
57% 91-69
TTL
47% 72-81-6
46% 69-81-9
50% 79-78-6
46% 69-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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