CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
52-49 | Road
1
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
40-60 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Chase Burns
#26 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob Young
#30 | Center Field| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Burns | None-None | 6.65 | -- | 5.2 | 10 |
| Jacob Young | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.65
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
5.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
10
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
61%
NATIONALS
39%
REDS
--
NATIONALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
53%
Under 0
47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
CIN By 1-2 runs
17.6%
CIN By 3-4 runs
12.3%
WSH By 1-2 runs
19.1%
WSH By 3-4 runs
14.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
4.09
CINCINNATI
Washington
4.53
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
4
CINCINNATI
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Nationals
Win
39% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nationals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nationals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
D
Sim
Nationals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
CIN @ WSH
1 - 7
Aug 8, 2026
CIN @ WSH
2 - 8
Aug 7, 2026
CIN @ WSH
3 - 5
May 14, 2026
WSH @ CIN
1 - 15
May 13, 2026
WSH @ CIN
8 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Washington
WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.321
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.423
.699
OPS
▲
.744
213
▲
Home Runs
210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+41.0% more
Washington: 1.0
vs
Cincinnati: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+39.1% more
Washington: 16.0
vs
Cincinnati: 11.5
Runs per Game (Season)
+23.4% more
Washington: 5.1
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
Hits (L5)
+12.6% more
Washington: 9.5
vs
Cincinnati: 8.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
4.1
1
WSH Score
4.5
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.3
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.5 / 8.4
7.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.6
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
5.3 / 8.5
5.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
16.0 / 11.5
13.0 / 11.0
Walks
5.1 / 5.0
0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
CIN
WSH
CIN
ML
57%
92-69
55%
88-71
54%
87-74
49%
79-81
ATS
58%
93-68
54%
86-73
57%
91-70
50%
80-80
TTL
50%
77-78-6
53%
81-73-5
42%
65-90-6
54%
83-72-5
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