BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
54-48 | Road
1
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
57-43 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Greg Weissert
#57 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cristopher Sanchez
#61 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Weissert | None-None | 3.16 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Cristopher Sanchez | None-None | 2.40 | -- | 9.0 | 12 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.16
ERA
Ldr 2.40
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 9.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 12
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
46%
PHILLIES
54%
RED SOX
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
40%
Under 0
60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
BOS By 1-2 runs
17.3%
BOS By 3-4 runs
11.9%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.2%
PHI By 3-4 runs
15.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
4.97
BOSTON
Philadelphia
5.53
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Boston
5
BOSTON
Philadelphia
6
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Win
54% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.6
A
Sim
Phillies (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 14, 2026
PHI @ BOS
3 - 1
May 13, 2026
PHI @ BOS
1 - 3
May 12, 2026
PHI @ BOS
2 - 1
Jul 23, 2025
BOS @ PHI
9 - 8
Jul 22, 2025
BOS @ PHI
1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
2
Games Played
2
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
3.50
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.286
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.409
OPS
▲
.724
2
Home Runs
▲
3
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+250.0% more
Philadelphia: 3.5
vs
Boston: 1.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+46.1% more
Philadelphia: 11.1
vs
Boston: 7.6
Walks (L5)
+43.5% more
Philadelphia: 3.2
vs
Boston: 2.2
OPS (Season)
+31.5%
Philadelphia: 72.4%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
5.0
1
PHI Score
5.5
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.8
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.3 / 7.4
7.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.2
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
11.1 / 7.6
12.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
11.8 / 12.6
13.0 / 7.0
Walks
3.2 / 2.2
0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
BOS
PHI
BOS
ML
59%
97-67
50%
80-80
49%
80-84
47%
76-87
ATS
65%
107-57
58%
93-67
51%
83-81
48%
79-84
TTL
57%
88-67-9
46%
72-83-5
51%
78-76-9
47%
74-83-6
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