Home / MLB Projections MLB / Angels @ Mets LAA @ NYM

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

49-51  |  Road

2
FINAL
Tue, Jul 22 • 7:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

57-44  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Jorge Soler
STARTING PITCHER

Jorge Soler

#12 | Designated Hitter
@
Francisco Alvarez
STARTING PITCHER

Francisco Alvarez

#4 | Catcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jorge Soler None-None -- -- -- --
Francisco Alvarez None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA --
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
43%
📊
METS
57%
ANGELS --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 75%
Under 0 25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (New York)
AngelsLAA (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Angels Cover

42.5%

Mets Cover

57.5%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

LAA By 1-2 runs

16.9%

LAA By 3-4 runs

11.3%

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.4%

NYM By 3-4 runs

15.7%

AI Model Projected Score
4.45
LOS ANGELES
5.21
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
4
LOS ANGELES
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mets Win
57% Win Prob
D
Sim Mets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mets (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.8
C
Sim Mets (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.7
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 3, 2026 NYM @ LAA 5 - 1
May 2, 2026 NYM @ LAA 3 - 4
May 1, 2026 NYM @ LAA 4 - 3
Jul 23, 2025 LAA @ NYM 3 - 6
Jul 22, 2025 LAA @ NYM 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAA
vs
New York NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.04
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .239
.310
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.369
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .395
.679
OPS
▲ .705
154
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +32.5% more
New York: 204.0 vs Los Angeles: 154.0
Strikeouts (L5) +24.7% more
New York: 8.4 vs Los Angeles: 6.7
Runs per Game (Season) +6.7% more
New York: 4.3 vs Los Angeles: 4.0
Slugging Pct (Season) +2.6%
New York: 39.5% vs Los Angeles: 36.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAA Score 4.5 2
NYM Score 5.2 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.8 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 6.9 / 10.6 5.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.5 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.4 / 6.7 11.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 10.6 / 17.0 9.0 / 17.0
Walks 3.4 / 4.6 2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
15%MONEY85%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
NYM Advantage
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
LAA
NYM
LAA
ML
50% 79-80
59% 96-66
48% 76-83
55% 89-73
ATS
58% 93-66
60% 97-65
49% 78-81
51% 82-80
TTL
55% 80-66-13
53% 83-74-5
51% 74-72-13
52% 82-75-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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