Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Rockies STL @ COL

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

52-49  |  Road

4
FINAL
Tue, Jul 22 • 8:40 PM ET
Coors Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

24-76  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Riley O'Brien
STARTING PITCHER

Riley O'Brien

#61 | Relief Pitcher
@
Zach Agnos
STARTING PITCHER

Zach Agnos

#36 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Riley O'Brien None-None 1.85 -- 1.0 1
Zach Agnos None-None 5.83 -- 0.1 --
None-None W-L None-None
1.85 Ldr ERA 5.83
-- WHIP --
1.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.1
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
77%
📊
ROCKIES
23%
CARDINALS --
ROCKIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 88%
Under 0 12%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (St. Louis)
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 RockiesCOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

59.0%

Rockies Cover

41.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around STL -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

STL By 1-2 runs

19.5%

STL By 3-4 runs

16.1%

COL By 1-2 runs

16.5%

COL By 3-4 runs

10.9%

AI Model Projected Score
3.83
ST. LOUIS
2.92
COLORADO
Simulated Score
4
ST. LOUIS
6
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cardinals Loss
77% Win Prob
B
Sim Rockies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cardinals (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.9
D
Sim Rockies (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.8
A
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 STL @ COL 10 - 8
Sep 5, 2026 STL @ COL 7 - 10
Sep 4, 2026 STL @ COL 7 - 6
Aug 9, 2026 COL @ STL 4 - 7
Aug 8, 2026 COL @ STL 8 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
Colorado COL
162
Games Played
162
4.44
Runs / Game
▲ 4.64
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .254
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .322
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .417
.691
OPS
▲ .739
167
Home Runs
▲ 180
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +49.0% more
St. Louis: 0.9 vs Colorado: 0.4
Hits (L5) +12.3% more
St. Louis: 10.2 vs Colorado: 8.9
Total Bases (L5) +10.7% more
St. Louis: 15.2 vs Colorado: 13.6
Walks (L5) +72.0% more
Colorado: 2.9 vs St. Louis: 1.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 3.8 4
COL Score 2.9 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.9 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.9 / 10.2 11.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 0.8 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.0 / 7.1 1.0 / 13.0
Total Bases 13.6 / 15.2 20.0 / 15.0
Walks 2.9 / 1.7 4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
76%MONEY24%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
STL
COL
STL
ML
60% 97-64
53% 85-74
55% 88-73
52% 84-77
ATS
60% 97-64
56% 89-70
52% 83-78
53% 85-76
TTL
60% 93-62-6
46% 68-81-10
50% 77-78-6
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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