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MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

48-52  |  Road

10
FINAL
Tue, Jul 22 • 10:10 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

59-42  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Royce Lewis
STARTING PITCHER

Royce Lewis

#23 | First Base
@
Jack Dreyer
STARTING PITCHER

Jack Dreyer

#86 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Royce Lewis None-None -- -- -- --
Jack Dreyer None-None 2.98 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 2.98
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
40%
📊
DODGERS
60%
TWINS --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 53%
Under 0 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Los Angeles)
TwinsMIN (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Twins Cover

39.6%

Dodgers Cover

60.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

MIN By 1-2 runs

16.2%

MIN By 3-4 runs

10.4%

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.6%

LAD By 3-4 runs

16.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.14
MINNESOTA
4.2
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
3
MINNESOTA
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dodgers Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Dodgers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dodgers (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.1
B
Sim Dodgers (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 24, 2026 LAD @ MIN 4 - 3
Jun 23, 2026 LAD @ MIN 12 - 3
Jun 22, 2026 LAD @ MIN 2 - 1
Jul 23, 2025 MIN @ LAD 3 - 4
Jul 22, 2025 MIN @ LAD 10 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota MIN
vs
Los Angeles LAD
162
Games Played
162
4.56
Runs / Game
▲ 4.94
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.403
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .424
.720
OPS
▲ .762
187
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +248.4% more
Los Angeles: 4.3 vs Minnesota: 1.2
Home Runs (L5) +39.2% more
Los Angeles: 2.4 vs Minnesota: 1.7
Errors (L5) +32.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.9 vs Minnesota: 0.5
Home Runs (Season) +9.1% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Minnesota: 187.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 3.1 10
LAD Score 4.2 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.5 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.9 / 9.5 8.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 2.4 / 1.7 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.5 / 9.3 13.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 15.4 / 17.6 15.0 / 14.0
Walks 4.3 / 1.2 7.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
24%MONEY76%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
MIN
LAD
MIN
ML
56% 92-73
52% 84-78
48% 79-87
50% 80-81
ATS
59% 98-67
59% 95-67
43% 72-94
59% 95-66
TTL
48% 77-82-6
51% 78-75-9
44% 70-90-6
53% 80-72-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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