DETROIT
TIGERSDET
60-40 | Road
0
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
39-61 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jack Flaherty
#9 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Braxton Ashcraft
#35 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Flaherty | None-None | 4.77 | -- | 3.0 | 6 |
| Braxton Ashcraft | None-None | 2.63 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.77
ERA
Ldr 2.63
--
WHIP
--
3.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
6 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
70%
PIRATES
30%
TIGERS
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
44%
Under 0
56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around DET -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
DET By 1-2 runs
19.6%
DET By 3-4 runs
16.5%
PIT By 1-2 runs
16.1%
PIT By 3-4 runs
10.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
3.97
DETROIT
Pittsburgh
2.9
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Detroit
4
DETROIT
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tigers
Loss
70% Win Prob
B
Sim
Pirates
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tigers (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.1
B
Sim
Pirates (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
PIT @ DET
4 - 2
Sep 26, 2026
PIT @ DET
3 - 4
Sep 25, 2026
PIT @ DET
7 - 8
Aug 19, 2026
DET @ PIT
3 - 4
Aug 18, 2026
DET @ PIT
1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit
DET
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.46
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.320
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.720
OPS
▲
.734
181
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+36.0% more
Detroit: 0.6
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+30.3% more
Detroit: 10.9
vs
Pittsburgh: 7.6
Errors (L5)
+26.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.7
vs
Detroit: 0.4
Walks (L5)
+22.1% more
Pittsburgh: 3.1
vs
Detroit: 2.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
4.0
0
PIT Score
2.9
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.2 / 6.6
9.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.2 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.6 / 10.9
11.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
10.3 / 9.1
9.0 / 6.0
Walks
3.1 / 2.5
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
DET
PIT
DET
ML
52%
82-77
54%
86-73
52%
85-78
54%
87-73
ATS
54%
86-73
64%
101-58
50%
81-82
57%
91-69
TTL
47%
72-81-6
46%
69-81-9
50%
79-78-6
46%
69-81-10
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