BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
54-47 | Road
2
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
56-43 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Garrett Whitlock
#22 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Orion Kerkering
#50 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Whitlock | None-None | 3.23 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
| Orion Kerkering | None-None | 2.87 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.23
ERA
Ldr 2.87
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
47%
PHILLIES
53%
RED SOX
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
BOS By 1-2 runs
17.9%
BOS By 3-4 runs
12.7%
PHI By 1-2 runs
18.9%
PHI By 3-4 runs
14.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
5.05
BOSTON
Philadelphia
5.33
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Boston
4
BOSTON
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Win
53% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.3
B
Sim
Phillies (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 14, 2026
PHI @ BOS
3 - 1
May 13, 2026
PHI @ BOS
1 - 3
May 12, 2026
PHI @ BOS
2 - 1
Jul 23, 2025
BOS @ PHI
9 - 8
Jul 22, 2025
BOS @ PHI
1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
2
Games Played
2
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
3.50
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.286
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.409
OPS
▲
.724
2
Home Runs
▲
3
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+250.0% more
Philadelphia: 3.5
vs
Boston: 1.0
Walks (L5)
+106.5% more
Philadelphia: 3.8
vs
Boston: 1.8
OPS (Season)
+31.5%
Philadelphia: 72.4%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+18.8%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Boston: 25.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
5.1
2
PHI Score
5.3
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.7
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.4 / 7.0
7.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.3
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.7 / 7.4
16.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
13.3 / 12.4
9.0 / 13.0
Walks
3.8 / 1.8
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
BOS
PHI
BOS
ML
59%
97-67
50%
80-80
49%
80-84
47%
76-87
ATS
65%
107-57
58%
93-67
51%
83-81
48%
79-84
TTL
57%
88-67-9
46%
72-83-5
51%
78-76-9
47%
74-83-6
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