CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
52-48 | Road
8
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
39-60 | Home
10
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Sam Moll
#50 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jake Irvin
#27 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Moll | None-None | 5.63 | -- | 1.1 | 2 |
| Jake Irvin | None-None | 4.81 | -- | 3.2 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.63
ERA
Ldr 4.81
--
WHIP
--
1.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 3.2
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
63%
NATIONALS
38%
REDS
--
NATIONALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
CIN By 1-2 runs
17.8%
CIN By 3-4 runs
12.5%
WSH By 1-2 runs
19.0%
WSH By 3-4 runs
14.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
3.93
CINCINNATI
Washington
4.28
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
3
CINCINNATI
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Nationals
Win
38% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nationals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nationals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
D
Sim
Nationals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.2
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
CIN @ WSH
1 - 7
Aug 8, 2026
CIN @ WSH
2 - 8
Aug 7, 2026
CIN @ WSH
3 - 5
May 14, 2026
WSH @ CIN
1 - 15
May 13, 2026
WSH @ CIN
8 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Washington
WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.321
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.423
.699
OPS
▲
.744
213
▲
Home Runs
210
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+23.4% more
Washington: 5.1
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
Home Runs (L5)
+11.0% more
Washington: 1.0
vs
Cincinnati: 0.9
OPS (Season)
+4.5%
Washington: 74.4%
vs
Cincinnati: 69.9%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+2.9%
Washington: 42.3%
vs
Cincinnati: 39.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
3.9
8
WSH Score
4.3
10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.7 / 8.1
15.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.9
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.4 / 8.8
3.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
11.0 / 12.3
26.0 / 10.0
Walks
3.7 / 3.6
8.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
CIN
WSH
CIN
ML
57%
92-69
55%
88-71
54%
87-74
49%
79-81
ATS
58%
93-68
54%
86-73
57%
91-70
50%
80-80
TTL
50%
77-78-6
53%
81-73-5
42%
65-90-6
54%
83-72-5
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