Home / MLB Projections MLB / Angels @ Mets LAA @ NYM

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

49-50  |  Road

5
FINAL
Mon, Jul 21 • 7:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

56-44  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Jose Fermin
STARTING PITCHER

Jose Fermin

#65 | Relief Pitcher
@
Kodai Senga
STARTING PITCHER

Kodai Senga

#34 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jose Fermin None-None 5.00 -- 0.1 --
Kodai Senga None-None 1.79 -- 3.0 5
None-None W-L None-None
5.00 ERA Ldr 1.79
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 3.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
44%
📊
METS
56%
ANGELS --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 75%
Under 0 25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
0.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
AngelsLAA (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Angels Cover

50.4%

Mets Cover

49.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAA 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

LAA By 1-2 runs

18.5%

LAA By 3-4 runs

13.7%

NYM By 1-2 runs

18.4%

NYM By 3-4 runs

13.5%

AI Model Projected Score
4.73
LOS ANGELES
4.69
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
4
LOS ANGELES
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Angels Loss
44% Win Prob
D
Sim Mets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Angels (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: 0.0
C
Sim Mets (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.4
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 3, 2026 NYM @ LAA 5 - 1
May 2, 2026 NYM @ LAA 3 - 4
May 1, 2026 NYM @ LAA 4 - 3
Jul 23, 2025 LAA @ NYM 3 - 6
Jul 22, 2025 LAA @ NYM 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAA
vs
New York NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.04
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .239
.310
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.369
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .395
.679
OPS
▲ .705
154
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +64.2% more
Los Angeles: 1.8 vs New York: 0.6
Total Bases (L5) +42.8% more
Los Angeles: 19.0 vs New York: 10.9
Hits (L5) +36.6% more
Los Angeles: 11.5 vs New York: 7.3
Walks (L5) +20.2% more
Los Angeles: 3.8 vs New York: 3.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAA Score 4.7 5
NYM Score 4.7 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.7 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.3 / 11.5 6.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.8 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.6 / 7.6 10.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 10.9 / 19.0 10.0 / 13.0
Walks 3.1 / 3.8 4.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
29%MONEY71%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
NYM Advantage
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
LAA
NYM
LAA
ML
50% 79-80
59% 96-66
48% 76-83
55% 89-73
ATS
58% 93-66
60% 97-65
49% 78-81
51% 82-80
TTL
55% 80-66-13
53% 83-74-5
51% 74-72-13
52% 82-75-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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