CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
35-65 | Road
8
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
52-48 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Sean Burke
#59 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Garrett Cleavinger
#60 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Burke | None-None | 4.19 | -- | 4.0 | 5 |
| Garrett Cleavinger | None-None | 2.55 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.19
ERA
Ldr 2.55
--
WHIP
--
4.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
5 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
33%
RAYS
67%
WHITE SOX
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
47%
Under 0
53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
CHW By 1-2 runs
16.9%
CHW By 3-4 runs
11.4%
TB By 1-2 runs
19.4%
TB By 3-4 runs
15.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
4.44
CHICAGO
Tampa Bay
5.19
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Chicago
4
CHICAGO
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rays
Loss
67% Win Prob
C
Sim
Rays
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rays (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.8
B
Sim
Rays (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
CHW @ TB
9 - 1
Aug 1, 2026
CHW @ TB
0 - 1
Jul 31, 2026
CHW @ TB
6 - 1
Apr 16, 2026
TB @ CHW
5 - 3
Apr 15, 2026
TB @ CHW
8 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHW
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
1
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.54
.324
▲
Avg (AVG)
.258
.415
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.412
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.826
▲
OPS
.728
1
Home Runs
▲
169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+16800.0% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0
vs
Chicago: 1.0
Errors (L5)
+43.0% more
Chicago: 0.6
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.1
Walks (L5)
+42.5% more
Chicago: 2.6
vs
Tampa Bay: 1.5
Total Bases (L5)
+31.7% more
Chicago: 17.4
vs
Tampa Bay: 11.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHW Score
4.4
8
TB Score
5.2
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.6
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
7.6 / 9.8
5.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.3
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.5 / 8.5
12.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
11.9 / 17.4
9.0 / 21.0
Walks
1.5 / 2.6
3.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TB
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
CHW
TB
CHW
ML
58%
95-68
49%
81-86
58%
95-68
56%
94-73
ATS
60%
97-66
59%
99-68
55%
90-73
56%
93-74
TTL
47%
73-81-9
58%
96-69-2
51%
78-75-10
51%
84-81-2
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