ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
51-49 | Road
6
COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
24-75 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Michael McGreevy
#36 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Juan Mejia
#47 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael McGreevy | None-None | 3.49 | -- | 7.0 | 1 |
| Juan Mejia | None-None | 4.63 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.49 Ldr
ERA
4.63
--
WHIP
--
7.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
76%
ROCKIES
24%
CARDINALS
--
ROCKIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
75%
Under 0
25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around STL -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
STL By 1-2 runs
19.0%
STL By 3-4 runs
14.6%
COL By 1-2 runs
17.8%
COL By 3-4 runs
12.5%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
3.38
ST. LOUIS
Colorado
3.02
COLORADO
Simulated Score
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
Colorado
6
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals
Win
76% Win Prob
B
Sim
Rockies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
C
Sim
Rockies (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.4
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
STL @ COL
10 - 8
Sep 5, 2026
STL @ COL
7 - 10
Sep 4, 2026
STL @ COL
7 - 6
Aug 9, 2026
COL @ STL
4 - 7
Aug 8, 2026
COL @ STL
8 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Colorado
COL
162
Games Played
162
4.44
Runs / Game
▲
4.64
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.254
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.322
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.417
.691
OPS
▲
.739
167
Home Runs
▲
180
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+23.0% more
St. Louis: 0.8
vs
Colorado: 0.6
Strikeouts (L5)
+21.0% more
St. Louis: 8.2
vs
Colorado: 6.5
Walks (L5)
+90.1% more
Colorado: 3.8
vs
St. Louis: 2.0
Home Runs (L5)
+81.0% more
Colorado: 1.5
vs
St. Louis: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
3.4
6
COL Score
3.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.8
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.4 / 7.8
8.0 / 15.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 0.7
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.5 / 8.2
11.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
16.3 / 11.8
8.0 / 22.0
Walks
3.8 / 2.0
1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
STL
COL
STL
ML
60%
97-64
53%
85-74
55%
88-73
52%
84-77
ATS
60%
97-64
56%
89-70
52%
83-78
53%
85-76
TTL
60%
93-62-6
46%
68-81-10
50%
77-78-6
50%
76-75-10
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