NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
54-44 | Road
4
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
43-54 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tim Hill
#41 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Grant Holmes
#66 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hill | None-None | 2.58 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Grant Holmes | None-None | 3.81 | -- | 6.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.58 Ldr
ERA
3.81
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
61%
BRAVES
39%
YANKEES
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
40%
Under 0
60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
NYY By 1-2 runs
17.2%
NYY By 3-4 runs
11.7%
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.3%
ATL By 3-4 runs
15.3%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
4.55
NEW YORK
Atlanta
5.17
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Braves
Loss
39% Win Prob
D
Sim
Braves
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Braves (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.6
B
Sim
Braves (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
ATL @ NYY
2 - 1
Aug 8, 2026
ATL @ NYY
4 - 5
Aug 7, 2026
ATL @ NYY
2 - 3
Jul 20, 2025
NYY @ ATL
4 - 2
Jul 19, 2025
NYY @ ATL
12 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYY
vs
Atlanta
ATL
1
Games Played
1
9.00
▲
Runs / Game
5.00
.375
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.447
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.324
.594
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.433
1.041
▲
OPS
.757
2
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+49.0% more
Atlanta: 0.6
vs
New York: 0.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+9.5% more
Atlanta: 8.9
vs
New York: 8.1
Hits (L5)
+9.3% more
Atlanta: 9.4
vs
New York: 8.6
Runs per Game (Season)
+44.4% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Atlanta: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYY Score
4.6
4
ATL Score
5.2
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.4 / 8.6
7.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 2.0
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.9 / 8.1
4.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
16.9 / 16.8
13.0 / 13.0
Walks
4.2 / 4.9
3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
NYY
ATL
NYY
ML
46%
77-90
47%
76-85
54%
90-78
52%
85-77
ATS
57%
96-71
59%
95-66
52%
87-81
53%
86-76
TTL
53%
83-73-11
53%
81-73-7
49%
76-80-11
53%
82-72-7
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