CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
52-47 | Road
2
NEW YORK
METSNYM
55-44 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Abbott
#41 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brett Baty
#7 | Third Base| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Abbott | None-None | 2.13 | -- | 6.0 | 5 |
| Brett Baty | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.13
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
6.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
5
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
47%
METS
53%
REDS
--
METS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
CIN By 1-2 runs
18.8%
CIN By 3-4 runs
14.2%
NYM By 1-2 runs
18.0%
NYM By 3-4 runs
12.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
4.5
CINCINNATI
New York
4.27
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
4
CINCINNATI
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Reds
Loss
47% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Reds (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.2
B
Sim
Mets (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 17, 2026
NYM @ CIN
9 - 1
Jun 16, 2026
NYM @ CIN
3 - 5
Jun 15, 2026
NYM @ CIN
0 - 12
May 27, 2026
CIN @ NYM
2 - 4
May 26, 2026
CIN @ NYM
7 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
New York
NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
4.31
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.239
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.310
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.395
.699
OPS
▲
.705
213
▲
Home Runs
204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+29.1% more
Cincinnati: 1.3
vs
New York: 1.0
Total Bases (L5)
+20.9% more
Cincinnati: 14.9
vs
New York: 11.8
Walks (L5)
+19.4% more
Cincinnati: 3.8
vs
New York: 3.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+19.2% more
Cincinnati: 9.7
vs
New York: 7.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
4.5
2
NYM Score
4.3
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.6
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.4 / 8.7
7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.3
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.8 / 9.7
7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
11.8 / 14.9
9.0 / 7.0
Walks
3.1 / 3.8
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
Advantage
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
CIN
NYM
CIN
ML
50%
79-80
55%
88-71
48%
76-83
49%
79-81
ATS
58%
93-66
54%
86-73
49%
78-81
50%
80-80
TTL
55%
80-66-13
53%
81-73-5
51%
74-72-13
54%
83-72-5
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