KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
47-52 | Road
7
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
46-51 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Steven Cruz
#64 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Gibson
#58 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Cruz | None-None | 2.61 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Cade Gibson | None-None | 2.70 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.61 Ldr
ERA
2.70
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
50%
MARLINS
50%
ROYALS
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
40%
Under 0
60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Kansas City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around KC -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)
KC By 1-2 runs
18.8%
KC By 3-4 runs
14.3%
MIA By 1-2 runs
17.9%
MIA By 3-4 runs
12.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Kansas City
4.8
KANSAS CITY
Miami
4.53
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Kansas City
3
KANSAS CITY
Miami
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Royals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Royals (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.3
B
Sim
Marlins (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 3, 2026
MIA @ KC
3 - 7
Sep 2, 2026
MIA @ KC
9 - 6
Sep 1, 2026
MIA @ KC
6 - 3
Jul 20, 2025
KC @ MIA
7 - 4
Jul 19, 2025
KC @ MIA
1 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City
KC
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲
4.41
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.718
OPS
▲
.727
170
▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+36.8% more
Kansas City: 3.5
vs
Miami: 2.2
Slugging Pct (Season)
+0.2%
Kansas City: 40.2%
vs
Miami: 40.0%
Total Bases (L5)
+36.8% more
Miami: 16.8
vs
Kansas City: 12.3
Home Runs (L5)
+29.3% more
Miami: 1.5
vs
Kansas City: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KC Score
4.8
7
MIA Score
4.5
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.1
2.0 / 2.0
Hits
9.2 / 7.2
7.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.2
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.0 / 7.3
4.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
16.8 / 12.3
8.0 / 17.0
Walks
2.2 / 3.5
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
KC
MIA
KC
ML
48%
78-84
55%
89-72
55%
88-72
56%
90-70
ATS
56%
91-71
57%
91-70
54%
86-74
58%
93-67
TTL
56%
88-69-5
58%
90-64-7
53%
82-73-5
54%
83-70-7
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