ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
51-48 | Road
3
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
49-50 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Riley O'Brien
#61 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Merrill Kelly
#29 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley O'Brien | None-None | 1.93 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Merrill Kelly | None-None | 3.32 | -- | 6.0 | 5 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.93 Ldr
ERA
3.32
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
52%
DIAMONDBACKS
48%
CARDINALS
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
29%
Under 0
71%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.3
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.3 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -2.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
STL By 1-2 runs
12.7%
STL By 3-4 runs
7.1%
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.4%
ARI By 3-4 runs
18.9%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
2.8
ST. LOUIS
Arizona
5.08
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
St. Louis
3
ST. LOUIS
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks
Win
48% Win Prob
D
Sim
Diamondbacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.3
D
Sim
Diamondbacks (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 23, 2026
ARI @ STL
10 - 6
Jul 19, 2026
STL @ ARI
7 - 8
Jul 18, 2026
STL @ ARI
3 - 5
Jul 17, 2026
STL @ ARI
5 - 4
Jun 24, 2026
ARI @ STL
9 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Arizona
ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.44
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.318
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.691
OPS
▲
.720
167
▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5)
+37.6% more
Arizona: 18.1
vs
St. Louis: 13.2
Hits (L5)
+25.9% more
Arizona: 10.3
vs
St. Louis: 8.2
Walks (L5)
+24.3% more
Arizona: 2.5
vs
St. Louis: 2.0
Home Runs (L5)
+12.7% more
Arizona: 1.2
vs
St. Louis: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
2.8
3
ARI Score
5.1
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 1.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.3 / 8.2
7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.0
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.7 / 7.8
9.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
18.1 / 13.2
15.0 / 9.0
Walks
2.5 / 2.0
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
STL
ARI
STL
ML
54%
87-74
53%
85-74
54%
86-74
52%
84-77
ATS
57%
91-70
56%
89-70
56%
89-71
53%
85-76
TTL
52%
80-73-8
46%
68-81-10
49%
73-77-9
50%
76-75-10
Contextual Game News
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
Jeimer Candelario Opts for Free Agency After Brief Angels Stint
Rich Rodriguez's Arizona Legacy: All-Star Team Rekindles Tucson …
Alex Cora Joins Growing List of Unavailable Managers for Seattle…
Diamondbacks Honor Virahonda and Hagaman as Top Minor Leaguers A…