HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
56-42 | Road
11
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
53-45 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Abreu
#52 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Woo
#22 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Abreu | None-None | 1.83 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Bryan Woo | None-None | 2.91 | -- | 6.0 | 6 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.83 Ldr
ERA
2.91
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
53%
MARINERS
47%
ASTROS
--
MARINERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
75%
Under 0
25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Seattle)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SEA -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
HOU By 1-2 runs
16.5%
HOU By 3-4 runs
10.9%
SEA By 1-2 runs
19.5%
SEA By 3-4 runs
16.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
5.04
HOUSTON
Seattle
5.95
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
Houston
3
HOUSTON
Seattle
5
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mariners
Loss
47% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mariners
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mariners (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.9
D
Sim
Mariners (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 23, 2026
HOU @ SEA
5 - 6
Sep 22, 2026
HOU @ SEA
7 - 0
Aug 16, 2026
SEA @ HOU
3 - 2
Aug 15, 2026
SEA @ HOU
10 - 5
Aug 14, 2026
SEA @ HOU
7 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Seattle
SEA
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.10
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.233
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.379
.582
OPS
▲
.693
4
Home Runs
▲
182
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+4450.0% more
Seattle: 182.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Home Runs (L5)
+126.0% more
Seattle: 1.9
vs
Houston: 0.7
Total Bases (L5)
+44.1% more
Seattle: 16.4
vs
Houston: 11.4
Errors (L5)
+41.0% more
Seattle: 0.9
vs
Houston: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
5.0
11
SEA Score
6.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.5
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.8 / 8.2
10.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
1.9 / 0.7
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
11.0 / 10.0
8.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
16.4 / 11.4
12.0 / 23.0
Walks
4.1 / 4.0
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
HOU
SEA
HOU
ML
50%
81-81
50%
81-82
52%
85-77
47%
77-87
ATS
60%
98-64
56%
91-72
59%
95-67
55%
90-74
TTL
56%
85-67-10
45%
70-84-9
53%
81-71-10
45%
69-86-9
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