KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
47-51 | Road
1
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
45-51 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Lucas Erceg
#60 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Phillips
#30 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Erceg | None-None | 2.50 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Tyler Phillips | None-None | 3.61 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.50 Ldr
ERA
3.61
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
51%
MARLINS
49%
ROYALS
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
40%
Under 0
60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
KC By 1-2 runs
17.7%
KC By 3-4 runs
12.4%
MIA By 1-2 runs
19.0%
MIA By 3-4 runs
14.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Kansas City
4.49
KANSAS CITY
Miami
4.89
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Kansas City
3
KANSAS CITY
Miami
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Marlins
Win
49% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Marlins (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
C
Sim
Marlins (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 3, 2026
MIA @ KC
3 - 7
Sep 2, 2026
MIA @ KC
9 - 6
Sep 1, 2026
MIA @ KC
6 - 3
Jul 20, 2025
KC @ MIA
7 - 4
Jul 19, 2025
KC @ MIA
1 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City
KC
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲
4.41
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.718
OPS
▲
.727
170
▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+82.1% more
Miami: 2.2
vs
Kansas City: 1.2
Total Bases (L5)
+27.7% more
Miami: 19.7
vs
Kansas City: 15.4
Hits (L5)
+16.6% more
Miami: 10.9
vs
Kansas City: 9.3
Errors (L5)
+8.0% more
Miami: 0.2
vs
Kansas City: 0.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KC Score
4.5
1
MIA Score
4.9
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.9 / 9.3
6.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
2.2 / 1.2
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.0 / 9.4
5.0 / 3.0
Total Bases
19.7 / 15.4
11.0 / 6.0
Walks
1.8 / 2.8
3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
KC
MIA
KC
ML
48%
78-84
55%
89-72
55%
88-72
56%
90-70
ATS
56%
91-71
57%
91-70
54%
86-74
58%
93-67
TTL
56%
88-69-5
58%
90-64-7
53%
82-73-5
54%
83-70-7
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