Home / MLB Projections MLB / Angels @ Phillies LAA @ PHI

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

48-49  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sat, Jul 19 • 6:05 PM ET
Citizens Bank Park
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

55-42  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
Jose Fermin
STARTING PITCHER

Jose Fermin

#65 | Relief Pitcher
@
Orion Kerkering
STARTING PITCHER

Orion Kerkering

#50 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jose Fermin None-None 5.09 -- 0.1 --
Orion Kerkering None-None 2.95 -- 1.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
5.09 ERA Ldr 2.95
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
43%
📊
PHILLIES
57%
ANGELS --
PHILLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
0.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
AngelsLAA (-3.5) 0 PhilliesPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Angels Cover

50.3%

Phillies Cover

49.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAA 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

LAA By 1-2 runs

18.5%

LAA By 3-4 runs

13.7%

PHI By 1-2 runs

18.4%

PHI By 3-4 runs

13.5%

AI Model Projected Score
4.74
LOS ANGELES
4.71
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
3
LOS ANGELES
4
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Angels Loss
43% Win Prob
D
Sim Phillies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Angels (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: 0.0
B
Sim Phillies (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.5
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2026 PHI @ LAA 5 - 2
Aug 29, 2026 PHI @ LAA 4 - 2
Aug 28, 2026 PHI @ LAA 5 - 3
Jul 20, 2025 LAA @ PHI 8 - 2
Jul 19, 2025 LAA @ PHI 5 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAA
vs
Philadelphia PHI
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.04 ▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.310 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.369
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .438
.679
OPS
▲ .724
154 ▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +98.1% more
Los Angeles: 154.0 vs Philadelphia: 3.0
Errors (L5) +63.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.9 vs Philadelphia: 0.2
Hits (L5) +17.5% more
Los Angeles: 9.3 vs Philadelphia: 7.7
Total Bases (L5) +17.1% more
Los Angeles: 17.0 vs Philadelphia: 14.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAA Score 4.7 5
PHI Score 4.7 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.7 / 9.3 9.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 1.7 2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 9.0 / 7.0 12.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 14.1 / 17.0 18.0 / 23.0
Walks 3.5 / 3.6 1.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
LAA
PHI
LAA
ML
59% 97-67
59% 96-66
49% 80-84
55% 89-73
ATS
65% 107-57
60% 97-65
51% 83-81
51% 82-80
TTL
57% 88-67-9
53% 83-74-5
51% 78-76-9
52% 82-75-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Jeimer Candelario Opts for Free Agency After Brief Angels Stint
si 3 hours, 15 minutes ago
Brewers vs. Dodgers NLCS Tickets: Prices, Schedule, and How to A…
sportingnews 9 hours, 5 minutes ago
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
hawaiitribune_herald 15 hours, 11 minutes ago
Dodgers Embrace 'Dinosaur' Label While Trolling Padres After NLD…
headtopics 21 hours, 15 minutes ago
Alex Cora Joins Growing List of Unavailable Managers for Seattle…
si 1 day, 9 hours ago