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CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

33-65  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Jul 19 • 6:40 PM ET
PNC Park
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

39-59  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Colson Montgomery
STARTING PITCHER

Colson Montgomery

#12 | Shortstop
@
Carmen Mlodzinski
STARTING PITCHER

Carmen Mlodzinski

#50 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Colson Montgomery None-None -- -- -- --
Carmen Mlodzinski None-None 4.77 -- 3.1 2
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 4.77
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 3.1
-- K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
43%
📊
PIRATES
57%
WHITE SOX --
PIRATES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Pittsburgh)
White SoxCHW (-3.5) 0 PiratesPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

White Sox Cover

40.0%

Pirates Cover

60.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PIT -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

CHW By 1-2 runs

16.3%

CHW By 3-4 runs

10.6%

PIT By 1-2 runs

19.6%

PIT By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3.67
CHICAGO
4.68
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
4
CHICAGO
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pirates Loss
57% Win Prob
D
Sim Pirates Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pirates (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Sim Pirates (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.4
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 10, 2026 PIT @ CHW 2 - 0
Sep 9, 2026 PIT @ CHW 4 - 2
Sep 8, 2026 PIT @ CHW 9 - 3
Jul 20, 2025 CHW @ PIT 7 - 2
Jul 19, 2025 CHW @ PIT 10 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHW
vs
Pittsburgh PIT
1
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.73
.324 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.253
.415 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.330
.412 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.404
.826 ▲
OPS
.734
1
Home Runs
▲ 186
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +18500.0% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0 vs Chicago: 1.0
Walks (L5) +22.7% more
Pittsburgh: 3.5 vs Chicago: 2.8
Home Runs (L5) +61.5% more
Chicago: 1.3 vs Pittsburgh: 0.5
Total Bases (L5) +33.5% more
Chicago: 14.6 vs Pittsburgh: 9.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHW Score 3.7 10
PIT Score 4.7 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.5 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.8 / 8.1 13.0 / 13.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 1.3 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.6 / 6.4 9.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 9.7 / 14.6 18.0 / 19.0
Walks 3.5 / 2.8 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
55%MONEY45%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
30%MONEY70%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW Advantage
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
PIT
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
CHW
PIT
CHW
ML
52% 82-77
49% 81-86
52% 85-78
56% 94-73
ATS
54% 86-73
59% 99-68
50% 81-82
56% 93-74
TTL
47% 72-81-6
58% 96-69-2
50% 79-78-6
51% 84-81-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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