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BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

53-46  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Jul 19 • 7:15 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

58-39  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Brayan Bello
STARTING PITCHER

Brayan Bello

#66 | Starting Pitcher
@
Shota Imanaga
STARTING PITCHER

Shota Imanaga

#18 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brayan Bello None-None 3.23 -- 6.0 4
Shota Imanaga None-None 2.40 -- 7.0 5
None-None W-L None-None
3.23 ERA Ldr 2.40
-- WHIP --
6.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 7.0
4 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
44%
📊
CUBS
56%
RED SOX --
CUBS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 53%
Under 0 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Boston)
Red SoxBOS (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

65.4%

Cubs Cover

34.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.7%

BOS By 3-4 runs

17.6%

CHC By 1-2 runs

14.8%

CHC By 3-4 runs

9.0%

AI Model Projected Score
6.99
BOSTON
5.41
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
4
BOSTON
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Sox Loss
44% Win Prob
D
Sim Cubs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Red Sox (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.6
C
Sim Cubs (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 12.4
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 CHC @ BOS 6 - 2
Sep 25, 2026 CHC @ BOS 0 - 2
Jul 20, 2025 BOS @ CHC 6 - 1
Jul 19, 2025 BOS @ CHC 0 - 6
Jul 18, 2025 BOS @ CHC 1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
Chicago CHC
2
Games Played
2
1.00 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .129
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .229
.250 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.409 ▲
OPS
.374
2 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +75.0% more
Boston: 0.8 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +50.0% more
Boston: 1.0 vs Chicago: 0.5
Slugging Pct (Season) +10.5%
Boston: 25.0% vs Chicago: 14.5%
OPS (Season) +3.5%
Boston: 40.9% vs Chicago: 37.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 7.0 0
CHC Score 5.4 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.0 / 0.8 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.8 / 7.6 11.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 0.7 5.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.7 / 8.2 10.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 13.5 / 11.7 26.0 / 7.0
Walks 2.4 / 2.1 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
17%MONEY83%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
BOS
CHC
BOS
ML
58% 93-68
50% 80-80
51% 82-79
47% 76-87
ATS
61% 97-63-1
58% 93-67
47% 75-85-1
48% 79-84
TTL
52% 81-74-6
46% 72-83-5
46% 72-83-6
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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