HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
56-41 | Road
6
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
52-45 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Josh Hader
#71 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Eduard Bazardo
#83 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hader | None-None | 2.42 | -- | 2.0 | 1 |
| Eduard Bazardo | None-None | 2.84 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.42 Ldr
ERA
2.84
--
WHIP
--
2.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
54%
MARINERS
46%
ASTROS
--
MARINERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
0.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-2 runs
18.5%
HOU By 3-4 runs
13.7%
SEA By 1-2 runs
18.4%
SEA By 3-4 runs
13.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
5.72
HOUSTON
Seattle
5.68
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
Houston
4
HOUSTON
Seattle
5
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Astros
Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mariners
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Astros (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: 0.0
D
Sim
Mariners (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 11.4
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 23, 2026
HOU @ SEA
5 - 6
Sep 22, 2026
HOU @ SEA
7 - 0
Aug 16, 2026
SEA @ HOU
3 - 2
Aug 15, 2026
SEA @ HOU
10 - 5
Aug 14, 2026
SEA @ HOU
7 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Seattle
SEA
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.10
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.233
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.379
.582
OPS
▲
.693
4
Home Runs
▲
182
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+10.0% more
Houston: 10.6
vs
Seattle: 9.5
Home Runs (Season)
+4450.0% more
Seattle: 182.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Home Runs (L5)
+189.0% more
Seattle: 2.9
vs
Houston: 1.0
Total Bases (L5)
+89.9% more
Seattle: 20.2
vs
Houston: 10.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
5.7
6
SEA Score
5.7
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.2
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.7 / 6.2
7.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
2.9 / 1.0
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.5 / 10.6
14.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
20.2 / 10.6
9.0 / 13.0
Walks
3.2 / 2.9
6.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
HOU
SEA
HOU
ML
50%
81-81
50%
81-82
52%
85-77
47%
77-87
ATS
60%
98-64
56%
91-72
59%
95-67
55%
90-74
TTL
56%
85-67-10
45%
70-84-9
53%
81-71-10
45%
69-86-9
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