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LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

47-49  |  Road

6
FINAL
Fri, Jul 18 • 6:45 PM ET
Citizens Bank Park
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

55-41  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Jose Fermin
STARTING PITCHER

Jose Fermin

#65 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jesus Luzardo
STARTING PITCHER

Jesus Luzardo

#44 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jose Fermin None-None 4.15 -- 1.0 1
Jesus Luzardo None-None 4.29 -- 4.2 7
None-None W-L None-None
4.15 Ldr ERA 4.29
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 4.2
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 7
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
42%
📊
PHILLIES
58%
ANGELS --
PHILLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 42%
Under 0 58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Philadelphia)
AngelsLAA (-3.5) 0 PhilliesPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Angels Cover

41.9%

Phillies Cover

58.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

LAA By 1-2 runs

16.7%

LAA By 3-4 runs

11.2%

PHI By 1-2 runs

19.5%

PHI By 3-4 runs

15.8%

AI Model Projected Score
4.47
LOS ANGELES
5.29
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
3
LOS ANGELES
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Phillies Loss
58% Win Prob
D
Sim Phillies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Phillies (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.8
C
Sim Phillies (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.8
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2026 PHI @ LAA 5 - 2
Aug 29, 2026 PHI @ LAA 4 - 2
Aug 28, 2026 PHI @ LAA 5 - 3
Jul 20, 2025 LAA @ PHI 8 - 2
Jul 19, 2025 LAA @ PHI 5 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAA
vs
Philadelphia PHI
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.04 ▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.310 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.369
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .438
.679
OPS
▲ .724
154 ▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Slugging Pct (Season) +6.9%
Philadelphia: 43.8% vs Los Angeles: 36.9%
OPS (Season) +4.5%
Philadelphia: 72.4% vs Los Angeles: 67.9%
Batting Avg (Season) +1.3%
Philadelphia: 24.7% vs Los Angeles: 23.4%
Home Runs (Season) +98.1% more
Los Angeles: 154.0 vs Philadelphia: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAA Score 4.5 6
PHI Score 5.3 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 1.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.0 / 8.9 7.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 1.1 3.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 7.6 / 7.1 12.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 12.1 / 13.9 18.0 / 23.0
Walks 3.3 / 3.9 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
LAA
PHI
LAA
ML
59% 97-67
59% 96-66
49% 80-84
55% 89-73
ATS
65% 107-57
60% 97-65
51% 83-81
51% 82-80
TTL
57% 88-67-9
53% 83-74-5
51% 78-76-9
52% 82-75-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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