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ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

41-57  |  Road

6
FINAL
Fri, Jul 18 • 7:10 PM ET
Progressive Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

46-49  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Elvis Alvarado
STARTING PITCHER

Elvis Alvarado

#37 | Relief Pitcher
@
Slade Cecconi
STARTING PITCHER

Slade Cecconi

#44 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Elvis Alvarado None-None 3.21 -- 1.0 2
Slade Cecconi None-None 3.84 -- 8.1 2
None-None W-L None-None
3.21 Ldr ERA 3.84
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 8.1
2 K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
43%
📊
GUARDIANS
57%
ATHLETICS --
GUARDIANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 25%
Under 0 75%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Athletics)
AthleticsATH (-3.5) 0 GuardiansCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Athletics Cover

56.3%

Guardians Cover

43.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATH -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

ATH By 1-2 runs

19.3%

ATH By 3-4 runs

15.3%

CLE By 1-2 runs

17.2%

CLE By 3-4 runs

11.7%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
ATHLETICS
3.17
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
3
ATHLETICS
6
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Athletics Loss
43% Win Prob
D
Sim Guardians Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Athletics (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.6
C
Sim Guardians (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 ATH @ CLE 0 - 1
Sep 19, 2026 ATH @ CLE 6 - 12
Sep 18, 2026 ATH @ CLE 3 - 5
May 3, 2026 CLE @ ATH 1 - 7
May 2, 2026 CLE @ ATH 14 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics ATH
vs
Cleveland CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.31 ▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.719 ▲
OPS
.696
194 ▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +30.6% more
Athletics: 2.2 vs Cleveland: 1.5
Hits (L5) +27.9% more
Athletics: 8.4 vs Cleveland: 6.1
Total Bases (L5) +25.8% more
Athletics: 16.2 vs Cleveland: 12.0
Errors (L5) +21.0% more
Athletics: 0.3 vs Cleveland: 0.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATH Score 3.8 6
CLE Score 3.2 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.3 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.1 / 8.4 9.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 2.2 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.7 / 10.0 4.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 12.0 / 16.2 21.0 / 22.0
Walks 2.3 / 2.4 0.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
50%MONEY50%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
87%MONEY13%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
32%MONEY68%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
CLE Advantage
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
CLE Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
ATH
CLE
ATH
ML
54% 87-74
59% 95-67
49% 80-82
54% 87-74
ATS
58% 93-68
52% 84-78
59% 95-67
50% 81-80
TTL
55% 88-71-2
54% 84-73-5
43% 69-90-2
42% 66-90-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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