CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
50-47 | Road
8
NEW YORK
METSNYM
55-42 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Emilio Pagan
#15 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Sean Manaea
#59 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emilio Pagan | None-None | 2.90 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
| Sean Manaea | None-None | 2.45 | -- | 4.0 | 6 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.90
ERA
Ldr 2.45
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 4.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
45%
METS
55%
REDS
--
METS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
CIN By 1-2 runs
16.4%
CIN By 3-4 runs
10.8%
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.6%
NYM By 3-4 runs
16.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
4.02
CINCINNATI
New York
4.97
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
3
CINCINNATI
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mets
Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mets (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim
Mets (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 17, 2026
NYM @ CIN
9 - 1
Jun 16, 2026
NYM @ CIN
3 - 5
Jun 15, 2026
NYM @ CIN
0 - 12
May 27, 2026
CIN @ NYM
2 - 4
May 26, 2026
CIN @ NYM
7 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
New York
NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
4.31
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.239
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.310
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.395
.699
OPS
▲
.705
213
▲
Home Runs
204
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+9.0% more
New York: 0.3
vs
Cincinnati: 0.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+4.9% more
New York: 4.3
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.0%
New York: 23.9%
vs
Cincinnati: 22.9%
OPS (Season)
+0.6%
New York: 70.5%
vs
Cincinnati: 69.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
4.0
8
NYM Score
5.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.2
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.9 / 9.6
7.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.0
1.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts
7.4 / 9.1
10.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
13.5 / 15.0
11.0 / 22.0
Walks
1.9 / 3.1
7.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
Advantage
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
CIN
NYM
CIN
ML
50%
79-80
55%
88-71
48%
76-83
49%
79-81
ATS
58%
93-66
54%
86-73
49%
78-81
50%
80-80
TTL
55%
80-66-13
53%
81-73-5
51%
74-72-13
54%
83-72-5
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