ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
51-46 | Road
3
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
47-50 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Leahy
#62 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brandon Pfaadt
#32 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | None-None | 2.98 | -- | 2.0 | 3 |
| Brandon Pfaadt | None-None | 4.82 | -- | 7.0 | 6 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.98 Ldr
ERA
4.82
--
WHIP
--
2.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 7.0
3
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
54%
DIAMONDBACKS
46%
CARDINALS
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
41%
Under 0
59%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
STL By 1-2 runs
15.3%
STL By 3-4 runs
9.5%
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ARI By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
3.12
ST. LOUIS
Arizona
4.52
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks
Win
46% Win Prob
D
Sim
Diamondbacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
C
Sim
Diamondbacks (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 23, 2026
ARI @ STL
10 - 6
Jul 19, 2026
STL @ ARI
7 - 8
Jul 18, 2026
STL @ ARI
3 - 5
Jul 17, 2026
STL @ ARI
5 - 4
Jun 24, 2026
ARI @ STL
9 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Arizona
ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.44
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.318
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.691
OPS
▲
.720
167
▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+91.3% more
Arizona: 4.4
vs
St. Louis: 2.3
OPS (Season)
+2.9%
Arizona: 72.0%
vs
St. Louis: 69.1%
Runs per Game (Season)
+2.7% more
Arizona: 4.6
vs
St. Louis: 4.4
Slugging Pct (Season)
+2.4%
Arizona: 40.2%
vs
St. Louis: 37.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
3.1
3
ARI Score
4.5
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.7
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.9 / 8.1
11.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.1
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.9 / 8.8
6.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
13.7 / 12.8
15.0 / 14.0
Walks
4.4 / 2.3
1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
STL
ARI
STL
ML
54%
87-74
53%
85-74
54%
86-74
52%
84-77
ATS
57%
91-70
56%
89-70
56%
89-71
53%
85-76
TTL
52%
80-73-8
46%
68-81-10
49%
73-77-9
50%
76-75-10
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