CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
56-39 | Road
4
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
53-42 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Shota Imanaga
#18 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tim Hill
#41 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shota Imanaga | None-None | 2.65 | -- | 7.0 | 6 |
| Tim Hill | None-None | 2.49 | -- | 0.2 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.65
ERA
Ldr 2.49
--
WHIP
--
7.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
6 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
53%
YANKEES
47%
CUBS
--
YANKEES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
76%
Under 0
24%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.2
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.2 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -3.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
CHC By 1-2 runs
10.0%
CHC By 3-4 runs
5.0%
NYY By 1-2 runs
18.1%
NYY By 3-4 runs
19.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
4.32
CHICAGO
New York
7.52
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Yankees
Loss
47% Win Prob
D
Sim
Yankees
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Yankees (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.2
D
Sim
Yankees (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 11.8
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
NYY @ CHC
2 - 1
Aug 1, 2026
NYY @ CHC
2 - 5
Jul 31, 2026
NYY @ CHC
2 - 0
Jul 13, 2025
CHC @ NYY
4 - 1
Jul 12, 2025
CHC @ NYY
5 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
New York
NYY
2
▲
Games Played
1
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.374
OPS
▲
1.041
0
Home Runs
▲
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+850.0% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Home Runs (L5)
+87.0% more
New York: 1.9
vs
Chicago: 1.0
Walks (L5)
+63.3% more
New York: 3.1
vs
Chicago: 1.9
Slugging Pct (Season)
+44.9%
New York: 59.4%
vs
Chicago: 14.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
4.3
4
NYY Score
7.5
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.0
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.7 / 8.0
2.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.9 / 1.0
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.6 / 7.3
8.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
17.8 / 13.2
5.0 / 18.0
Walks
3.1 / 1.9
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
CHC
NYY
CHC
ML
47%
76-85
58%
93-68
52%
85-77
51%
82-79
ATS
59%
95-66
61%
97-63-1
53%
86-76
47%
75-85-1
TTL
53%
81-73-7
52%
81-74-6
53%
82-72-7
46%
72-83-6
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