COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
22-73 | Road
2
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
49-47 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Zach Agnos
#36 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Emilio Pagan
#15 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Agnos | None-None | 5.33 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Emilio Pagan | None-None | 2.93 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.33
ERA
Ldr 2.93
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
22%
REDS
78%
ROCKIES
--
REDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
COL By 1-2 runs
15.1%
COL By 3-4 runs
9.3%
CIN By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CIN By 3-4 runs
17.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Colorado
2.8
COLORADO
Cincinnati
4.27
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
Colorado
6
COLORADO
Cincinnati
7
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Reds
Win
78% Win Prob
B
Sim
Reds
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Reds (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim
Reds (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 13.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 19, 2026
CIN @ COL
9 - 6
Jul 18, 2026
CIN @ COL
3 - 10
Jul 17, 2026
CIN @ COL
7 - 2
Apr 30, 2026
COL @ CIN
4 - 6
Apr 29, 2026
COL @ CIN
13 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado
COL
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.64
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.254
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.322
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.417
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.739
▲
OPS
.699
180
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+55.4% more
Cincinnati: 10.1
vs
Colorado: 6.5
Total Bases (L5)
+22.6% more
Cincinnati: 14.5
vs
Colorado: 11.8
Hits (L5)
+21.3% more
Cincinnati: 8.9
vs
Colorado: 7.3
Home Runs (Season)
+18.3% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
Colorado: 180.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
COL Score
2.8
2
CIN Score
4.3
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.7
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.9 / 7.3
11.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.0
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.1 / 6.5
7.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
14.5 / 11.8
16.0 / 7.0
Walks
3.2 / 3.2
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
CIN
Advantage
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
COL
CIN
COL
ML
55%
88-71
60%
97-64
49%
79-81
55%
88-73
ATS
54%
86-73
60%
97-64
50%
80-80
52%
83-78
TTL
53%
81-73-5
60%
93-62-6
54%
83-72-5
50%
77-78-6
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