WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
38-57 | Road
1
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
55-40 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jake Irvin
#27 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Grant Anderson
#56 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Irvin | None-None | 4.58 | -- | 5.0 | 5 |
| Grant Anderson | None-None | 2.85 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.58
ERA
Ldr 2.85
--
WHIP
--
5.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
5 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
33%
BREWERS
67%
NATIONALS
--
BREWERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
70%
Under 0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.5
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL -2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
WSH By 1-2 runs
12.0%
WSH By 3-4 runs
6.5%
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.1%
MIL By 3-4 runs
19.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
4.8
WASHINGTON
Milwaukee
7.33
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Milwaukee
5
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Brewers
Win
67% Win Prob
C
Sim
Brewers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Brewers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.5
D
Sim
Brewers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 12.1
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 3, 2026
MIL @ WSH
2 - 3
May 2, 2026
MIL @ WSH
4 - 1
May 1, 2026
MIL @ WSH
6 - 1
Apr 12, 2026
WSH @ MIL
8 - 6
Apr 11, 2026
WSH @ MIL
3 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
162
Games Played
162
5.07
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.321
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.423
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
.744
▲
OPS
.743
210
▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+133.7% more
Milwaukee: 11.3
vs
Washington: 4.8
Walks (L5)
+14.1% more
Milwaukee: 3.3
vs
Washington: 2.9
On-Base Pct (Season)
+2.0%
Milwaukee: 34.1%
vs
Washington: 32.1%
Runs per Game (Season)
+1.4% more
Milwaukee: 5.1
vs
Washington: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
4.8
1
MIL Score
7.3
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.1
2.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.9 / 8.4
9.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.6
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
11.3 / 4.8
9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
13.2 / 14.9
15.0 / 5.0
Walks
3.3 / 2.9
1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
MIL
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
WSH
MIL
WSH
ML
62%
101-61
57%
92-69
52%
84-78
54%
87-74
ATS
58%
94-68
58%
93-68
48%
78-84
57%
91-70
TTL
40%
62-92-8
50%
77-78-6
50%
77-77-8
42%
65-90-6
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