PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
38-58 | Road
2
MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
47-48 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Mitch Keller
#23 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Jeffers
#27 | Catcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller | None-None | 3.48 | -- | 6.0 | 3 |
| Ryan Jeffers | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.48
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
6.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
3
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
40%
TWINS
60%
PIRATES
--
TWINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
72%
Under 0
28%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIN -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
PIT By 1-2 runs
14.0%
PIT By 3-4 runs
8.2%
MIN By 1-2 runs
19.7%
MIN By 3-4 runs
18.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
2.84
PITTSBURGH
Minnesota
4.68
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Minnesota
5
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Twins
Loss
60% Win Prob
D
Sim
Twins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Twins (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.8
D
Sim
Twins (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.5
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 31, 2026
MIN @ PIT
3 - 9
May 30, 2026
MIN @ PIT
9 - 10
May 29, 2026
MIN @ PIT
5 - 6
Jul 13, 2025
PIT @ MIN
2 - 1
Jul 12, 2025
PIT @ MIN
4 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Minnesota
MIN
162
Games Played
162
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
.734
▲
OPS
.720
186
Home Runs
▲
187
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+156.0% more
Minnesota: 2.2
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+88.3% more
Minnesota: 18.2
vs
Pittsburgh: 9.6
Hits (L5)
+43.6% more
Minnesota: 9.4
vs
Pittsburgh: 6.5
Runs per Game (Season)
+3.6% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7
vs
Minnesota: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
2.8
2
MIN Score
4.7
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.4 / 6.5
7.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
2.2 / 0.6
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.4 / 7.4
8.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
18.2 / 9.6
9.0 / 14.0
Walks
2.4 / 2.5
2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
PIT
MIN
PIT
ML
52%
84-78
52%
82-77
50%
80-81
52%
85-78
ATS
59%
95-67
54%
86-73
59%
95-66
50%
81-82
TTL
51%
78-75-9
47%
72-81-6
53%
80-72-9
50%
79-78-6
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