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ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

42-52  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sun, Jul 13 • 2:15 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

50-46  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Michael Harris II
STARTING PITCHER

Michael Harris II

#23 | Center Field
@
Riley O'Brien
STARTING PITCHER

Riley O'Brien

#61 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Michael Harris II None-None -- -- -- --
Riley O'Brien None-None 2.01 -- 1.2 2
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 2.01
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.2
-- K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
43%
📊
CARDINALS
57%
BRAVES --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 30%
Under 0 70%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Atlanta)
BravesATL (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Braves Cover

50.6%

Cardinals Cover

49.4%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATL -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)

ATL By 1-2 runs

18.5%

ATL By 3-4 runs

13.7%

STL By 1-2 runs

18.3%

STL By 3-4 runs

13.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3.62
ATLANTA
3.56
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
3
ATLANTA
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Braves Loss
43% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Braves (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.1
B
Sim Cardinals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.2
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 12, 2026 ATL @ STL 4 - 3
Jul 11, 2026 ATL @ STL 1 - 4
Jul 10, 2026 ATL @ STL 1 - 2
Jul 2, 2026 STL @ ATL 11 - 5
Jul 1, 2026 STL @ ATL 1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta ATL
vs
St. Louis STL
1
Games Played
▲ 162
5.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .239
.324 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.433 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.757 ▲
OPS
.691
1
Home Runs
▲ 167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +56.7% more
Atlanta: 2.5 vs St. Louis: 1.1
Strikeouts (L5) +33.5% more
Atlanta: 10.0 vs St. Louis: 6.7
Walks (L5) +32.1% more
Atlanta: 3.6 vs St. Louis: 2.5
Total Bases (L5) +30.0% more
Atlanta: 18.9 vs St. Louis: 13.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 3.6 4
STL Score 3.6 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.2 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.2 / 9.2 8.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 2.5 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.7 / 10.0 13.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 13.3 / 18.9 12.0 / 10.0
Walks 2.5 / 3.6 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
12%MONEY88%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
35%MONEY65%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
ATL
STL
ATL
ML
53% 85-74
46% 77-90
52% 84-77
54% 90-78
ATS
56% 89-70
57% 96-71
53% 85-76
52% 87-81
TTL
46% 68-81-10
53% 83-73-11
50% 76-75-10
49% 76-80-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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