CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
55-39 | Road
5
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
53-41 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Matthew Boyd
#16 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tim Hill
#41 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Boyd | None-None | 2.34 | -- | 8.0 | 6 |
| Tim Hill | None-None | 2.32 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.34
ERA
Ldr 2.32
--
WHIP
--
8.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
6 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
52%
YANKEES
48%
CUBS
--
YANKEES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
85%
Under 0
15%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.9
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -2.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
CHC By 1-2 runs
10.9%
CHC By 3-4 runs
5.6%
NYY By 1-2 runs
18.6%
NYY By 3-4 runs
19.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
4.45
CHICAGO
New York
7.35
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Yankees
Loss
48% Win Prob
D
Sim
Yankees
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Yankees (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.9
D
Sim
Yankees (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 11.8
A
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
NYY @ CHC
2 - 1
Aug 1, 2026
NYY @ CHC
2 - 5
Jul 31, 2026
NYY @ CHC
2 - 0
Jul 13, 2025
CHC @ NYY
4 - 1
Jul 12, 2025
CHC @ NYY
5 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
New York
NYY
2
▲
Games Played
1
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.374
OPS
▲
1.041
0
Home Runs
▲
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+850.0% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Home Runs (L5)
+130.0% more
New York: 2.3
vs
Chicago: 1.0
Total Bases (L5)
+63.2% more
New York: 20.8
vs
Chicago: 12.7
Slugging Pct (Season)
+44.9%
New York: 59.4%
vs
Chicago: 14.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
4.5
5
NYY Score
7.4
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.1
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
11.5 / 8.0
6.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
2.3 / 1.0
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.8 / 7.5
5.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
20.8 / 12.7
12.0 / 14.0
Walks
2.6 / 2.8
4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
CHC
NYY
CHC
ML
47%
76-85
58%
93-68
52%
85-77
51%
82-79
ATS
59%
95-66
61%
97-63-1
53%
86-76
47%
75-85-1
TTL
53%
81-73-7
52%
81-74-6
53%
82-72-7
46%
72-83-6
Contextual Game News
Guardians Storm Back in Game 4, Force Game 5 Against White Sox
Guardians Outslug White Sox in Game 4 to Force Decisive ALDS Gam…
White Sox Collapse in Game 4 Sets Up Winner-Take-All Game 5
Jose Ramirez Ignites Guardians' Comeback, Forces Game 5 vs. Whit…
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…