Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mariners @ Tigers SEA @ DET

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

49-45  |  Road

15
FINAL
Sat, Jul 12 • 1:10 PM ET
Comerica Park
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

TIGERSDET

59-36  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Eduard Bazardo
STARTING PITCHER

Eduard Bazardo

#83 | Relief Pitcher
@
Keider Montero
STARTING PITCHER

Keider Montero

#54 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Eduard Bazardo None-None 2.96 -- 0.1 1
Keider Montero None-None 4.02 -- 3.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
2.96 Ldr ERA 4.02
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 3.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
40%
📊
TIGERS
60%
MARINERS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Seattle)
MarinersSEA (-3.5) 0 TigersDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mariners Cover

52.0%

Tigers Cover

48.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SEA -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)

SEA By 1-2 runs

18.7%

SEA By 3-4 runs

14.1%

DET By 1-2 runs

18.1%

DET By 3-4 runs

13.0%

AI Model Projected Score
5.16
SEATTLE
4.96
DETROIT
Simulated Score
3
SEATTLE
5
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mariners Win
40% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mariners (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
C
Sim Tigers (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.1
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 6, 2026 DET @ SEA 11 - 0
Aug 5, 2026 DET @ SEA 2 - 4
Aug 4, 2026 DET @ SEA 8 - 0
Jun 7, 2026 SEA @ DET 4 - 5
Jun 6, 2026 SEA @ DET 4 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle SEA
vs
Detroit DET
162
Games Played
162
4.10
Runs / Game
▲ 4.46
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .241
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .320
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .400
.693
OPS
▲ .720
182 ▲
Home Runs
181
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +56.4% more
Seattle: 2.2 vs Detroit: 1.0
Total Bases (L5) +33.5% more
Seattle: 17.0 vs Detroit: 11.3
Hits (L5) +25.6% more
Seattle: 8.8 vs Detroit: 6.6
Errors (L5) +22.0% more
Seattle: 0.8 vs Detroit: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SEA Score 5.2 15
DET Score 5.0 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.8 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.6 / 8.8 10.0 / 19.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 2.2 2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 7.2 / 8.3 10.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 11.3 / 17.0 18.0 / 33.0
Walks 3.0 / 3.5 4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
11%MONEY89%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
30%MONEY70%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
SEA
DET
SEA
ML
54% 86-73
50% 81-81
54% 87-73
52% 85-77
ATS
64% 101-58
60% 98-64
57% 91-69
59% 95-67
TTL
46% 69-81-9
56% 85-67-10
46% 69-81-10
53% 81-71-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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