PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
38-57 | Road
4
MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
46-48 | Home
12
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Yohan Ramirez
#49 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Travis Adams
#45 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yohan Ramirez | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 2.0 | 4 |
| Travis Adams | None-None | 6.75 | -- | 4.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00 Ldr
ERA
6.75
--
WHIP
--
2.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 4.0
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
41%
TWINS
59%
PIRATES
--
TWINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
85%
Under 0
15%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIN -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
PIT By 1-2 runs
17.7%
PIT By 3-4 runs
12.5%
MIN By 1-2 runs
19.0%
MIN By 3-4 runs
14.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.48
PITTSBURGH
Minnesota
3.86
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Minnesota
5
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Twins
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Sim
Twins
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Twins (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
A
Sim
Twins (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.3
A
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 31, 2026
MIN @ PIT
3 - 9
May 30, 2026
MIN @ PIT
9 - 10
May 29, 2026
MIN @ PIT
5 - 6
Jul 13, 2025
PIT @ MIN
2 - 1
Jul 12, 2025
PIT @ MIN
4 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Minnesota
MIN
162
Games Played
162
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
.734
▲
OPS
.720
186
Home Runs
▲
187
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+84.0% more
Minnesota: 1.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.4
Walks (L5)
+58.1% more
Minnesota: 2.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 1.3
Total Bases (L5)
+29.2% more
Minnesota: 12.2
vs
Pittsburgh: 9.5
Runs per Game (Season)
+3.6% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7
vs
Minnesota: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.5
4
MIN Score
3.9
12
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.2
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.1 / 6.8
14.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.4
4.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.7 / 8.2
7.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
12.2 / 9.5
30.0 / 10.0
Walks
2.0 / 1.3
3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
PIT
MIN
PIT
ML
52%
84-78
52%
82-77
50%
80-81
52%
85-78
ATS
59%
95-67
54%
86-73
59%
95-66
50%
81-82
TTL
51%
78-75-9
47%
72-81-6
53%
80-72-9
50%
79-78-6
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