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ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

41-52  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Jul 12 • 2:15 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

50-45  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Raisel Iglesias
STARTING PITCHER

Raisel Iglesias

#26 | Relief Pitcher
@
Gordon Graceffo
STARTING PITCHER

Gordon Graceffo

#44 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Raisel Iglesias None-None 4.42 -- 1.0 1
Gordon Graceffo None-None 6.05 -- 1.2 3
None-None W-L None-None
4.42 Ldr ERA 6.05
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.2
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
42%
📊
CARDINALS
58%
BRAVES --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 44%
Under 0 56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (St. Louis)
BravesATL (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Braves Cover

46.5%

Cardinals Cover

53.5%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

ATL By 1-2 runs

17.8%

ATL By 3-4 runs

12.5%

STL By 1-2 runs

19.0%

STL By 3-4 runs

14.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3.23
ATLANTA
3.58
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
3
ATLANTA
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinals Loss
58% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.4
C
Sim Cardinals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.8
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 12, 2026 ATL @ STL 4 - 3
Jul 11, 2026 ATL @ STL 1 - 4
Jul 10, 2026 ATL @ STL 1 - 2
Jul 2, 2026 STL @ ATL 11 - 5
Jul 1, 2026 STL @ ATL 1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta ATL
vs
St. Louis STL
1
Games Played
▲ 162
5.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .239
.324 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.433 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.757 ▲
OPS
.691
1
Home Runs
▲ 167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +16600.0% more
St. Louis: 167.0 vs Atlanta: 1.0
Batting Avg (Season) +0.6%
St. Louis: 23.9% vs Atlanta: 23.3%
Home Runs (L5) +72.3% more
Atlanta: 2.2 vs St. Louis: 0.6
Total Bases (L5) +30.1% more
Atlanta: 18.4 vs St. Louis: 12.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 3.2 7
STL Score 3.6 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.8 / 8.9 7.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 2.2 2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 7.0 / 9.0 6.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 12.9 / 18.4 14.0 / 20.0
Walks 2.7 / 3.4 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
ATL
STL
ATL
ML
53% 85-74
46% 77-90
52% 84-77
54% 90-78
ATS
56% 89-70
57% 96-71
53% 85-76
52% 87-81
TTL
46% 68-81-10
53% 83-73-11
50% 76-75-10
49% 76-80-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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