Home / MLB Projections MLB / Nationals @ Brewers WSH @ MIL

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

38-56  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sat, Jul 12 • 4:10 PM ET
American Family Field
View Odds Details →

MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

54-40  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Jacob Young
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Young

#30 | Center Field
@
Grant Anderson
STARTING PITCHER

Grant Anderson

#56 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jacob Young None-None -- -- -- --
Grant Anderson None-None 2.91 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 2.91
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
33%
📊
BREWERS
67%
NATIONALS --
BREWERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 63%
Under 0 37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.4
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.4 points (Milwaukee)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 BrewersMIL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

19.8%

Brewers Cover

80.2%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL -3.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)

WSH By 1-2 runs

9.5%

WSH By 3-4 runs

4.6%

MIL By 1-2 runs

17.7%

MIL By 3-4 runs

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
4.2
WASHINGTON
7.6
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
3
WASHINGTON
5
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Brewers Win
67% Win Prob
C
Sim Brewers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Brewers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -3.4
D
Sim Brewers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 11.8
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 3, 2026 MIL @ WSH 2 - 3
May 2, 2026 MIL @ WSH 4 - 1
May 1, 2026 MIL @ WSH 6 - 1
Apr 12, 2026 WSH @ MIL 8 - 6
Apr 11, 2026 WSH @ MIL 3 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Milwaukee MIL
162
Games Played
162
5.07
Runs / Game
▲ 5.14
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.321
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .341
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
.744 ▲
OPS
.743
210 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +58.9% more
Milwaukee: 9.9 vs Washington: 6.3
Home Runs (L5) +34.0% more
Milwaukee: 1.2 vs Washington: 0.8
Hits (L5) +24.7% more
Milwaukee: 8.8 vs Washington: 7.1
Walks (L5) +21.4% more
Milwaukee: 3.5 vs Washington: 2.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 4.2 5
MIL Score 7.6 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.8 / 7.1 9.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 0.8 0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 9.9 / 6.3 14.0 / 2.0
Total Bases 13.8 / 12.4 12.0 / 20.0
Walks 3.5 / 2.9 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
4%MONEY96%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
MIL Advantage
106-60-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
MIL
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
WSH
MIL
WSH
ML
62% 101-61
57% 92-69
52% 84-78
54% 87-74
ATS
58% 94-68
58% 93-68
48% 78-84
57% 91-70
TTL
40% 62-92-8
50% 77-78-6
50% 77-77-8
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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