TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
47-48 | Road
4
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
55-39 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob deGrom
#48 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Josh Hader
#71 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob deGrom | None-None | 2.32 | -- | 6.0 | 8 |
| Josh Hader | None-None | 2.53 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.32 Ldr
ERA
2.53
--
WHIP
--
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
8 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
41%
ASTROS
59%
RANGERS
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
88%
Under 0
12%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Texas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TEX -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
TEX By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TEX By 3-4 runs
18.4%
HOU By 1-2 runs
13.5%
HOU By 3-4 runs
7.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
6.14
TEXAS
Houston
4.13
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Texas
3
TEXAS
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rangers
Loss
41% Win Prob
D
Sim
Astros
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rangers (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Sim
Astros (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.3
A
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
TEX @ HOU
3 - 7
Aug 1, 2026
TEX @ HOU
4 - 5
Jul 31, 2026
TEX @ HOU
2 - 11
Jul 12, 2026
HOU @ TEX
5 - 6
Jul 11, 2026
HOU @ TEX
9 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.15
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.242
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.396
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.713
▲
OPS
.582
183
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+97.8% more
Texas: 183.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Home Runs (L5)
+36.1% more
Texas: 1.7
vs
Houston: 1.1
Errors (L5)
+36.0% more
Texas: 0.4
vs
Houston: 0.1
Runs per Game (Season)
+27.7% more
Texas: 4.2
vs
Houston: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
6.1
4
HOU Score
4.1
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.5 / 11.5
7.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.7
3.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.5 / 9.0
19.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
13.9 / 18.4
16.0 / 16.0
Walks
3.1 / 2.9
0.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
TEX
HOU
TEX
ML
50%
81-82
53%
86-76
47%
77-87
57%
91-70
ATS
56%
91-72
57%
92-70
55%
90-74
61%
98-63
TTL
45%
70-84-9
53%
78-70-14
45%
69-86-9
55%
81-66-14
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